Taller People Earn More

Well, this kind of research is not old itself, "height premium": taller people earn more.

This is a new research conducted by two Australian economists.

“Using data from a nationally representative sample of Australian adults, we found that taller people earn more, with the effect being strongest for men”. “For example, the average man in our sample is 5 feet 10 inches tall,...,if he was 6 feet tall, he would earn another 1.5 per cent, or around $950 per year."

“The wage gain from another 2 inches (5 centimetres) of height is approximately equal to wage gain from one more year of labour market experience,..., This result holds constant across a number of other factors that also affect wages, such as age, race, family background, experience, and education. However, we found that the effect of height on women’s wages was smaller than for men, and not statistically significant.”

Interestingly, they also look at the relationship between wages and Body Mass Index (BMI).

In their data, 36 per cent of Australian workers were overweight, and 22 per cent were obese.

“...there seemed to be no wage penalty to being overweight or obese in the Australian labour market,...,This is in contrast with previous studies that used older data from the United States and Germany and found that people with higher BMI scores earned lower wages.

“It is difficult to know whether this is due to cross-country differences, or changes over time. Perhaps Australians are less likely to discriminate against overweight and obese workers than the other nations. Or maybe we cannot find an effect because we are using more recent data than the other studies, and the majority of workers are now overweight or obese.”

This problem, as I've ever heard, is the one related to "discrimination" in the labor market, or we could also say, employers' "preference "to employees.

This research is interesting because wage might be closely related to appearence.

Lucas on the Crisis

In macroeconomics, there are two theories(or believes?) : no policy should be done, and as many policies as should be done for the ailing economy. The difference is due to how to see the functioning of a market: a market is self-regulating or not.

Which is true? Nobody can still answer it definitely. Robert Lucas, one of the theorists who are in the former position(at least I believe so), talked about the recent crisis:

The responsibility of the Federal Reserve in this situation is to provide more cash reserves, and in that sense they are doing their job.

...But right now the recession is the more immediate problem. If inflation resumes, reserves can be taken out as quickly as they were added. This is a classic lender-of-last-resort situation and it is important to maintain focus.

In my view, these are the most important considerations for US policy today. I think if the current Federal Reserve lending policies are continued aggressively our chances of avoiding a recession larger than that of 1982 are very good. At this point, I think this is the best that can be hoped for and it is a lot better than a replay of the 1930s.

He worries about the deflation and he thinks the Fed should add more money to people.

In my impression, textbook-version Lucas discussion is like that: nothing should be done, let it alone.

However, he doesn't think so. The lesson: we should ask the question for the right person!

Mt.Fuji

Fat Debtors

Ikeda,Myong-Ⅱ,Otake, of Osaka Univ., "Fat Debtors:Time Discounting, Its Anomalies, and Body Mass Index".

The above topic is on why and how debtors are more likely to be obese than non-debtors. I haven't read it yet but it looks very interesting.

Japan's Maestro

07/04/2009, Jiji-tsushin, Shirakawa, governer of BOJ.

Inside the Temple

Short Visit to Kyoto

Hey, guys! That's the Kiyomizu temple, a very famous and old one in Kyoto, Japan.

Today, I'll take you to a traditional, historic and amazing part of Japan. Shall we go?

The gate,

The big bell,

The cherry blossom,

Japan:Still in Cold Winter

We have a useful data set to look at our economy, TANKAN, a diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points.

This index is very clear and easy to understand and may have a great impact on the coming economic event and policy in Japan. Here's the part of it:

[Business Conditions] Dec. 2008, March 2009

[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -24, -58
Nonmanufacturing - 9, -31

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing -24 , -57
Nonmanufacturing -21, -37

[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -29, -57
Nonmanufacturing -29, -42

[All Enterprises]
All industries -24, -46


We can see large enterprises of manufacturing worst in the above index and they have the most sever sufferings of all.

This is because they much depend on foreign demands and so are very weak at the time of world slump as we have today.

Large enterprises have low sales and thus low profit, which brings much lower sales and profit of smaller enterprises(because they are usually given jobs from large ones) and thus lower income and consumption as a whole.

Companies cut the prices and wages more, and workers(as a result, consumers) spend less further. We are now at the edge of serious deflationary recession.

A Happy Marriage

Today I got married with a woman whom I've ever loved. I am so happy!! Here's the picture of the wedding.

Sakura in Washington

Suicide Forest

AOKIGAHARA FOREST, Japan (CNN), By Kyung Lah -- Aokigahara Forest is known for two things in Japan: breathtaking views of Mount Fuji and suicides. Aokigahara Forest is known as the "suicide forest" because people often go there to take their own lives. Japan's Aokigahara Forest is known as the "suicide forest" because people often go there to take their own lives.

Taro, a 46-year-old man fired from his job at an iron manufacturing company, hoped to fade into the blackness.

"My will to live disappeared," said Taro. "I'd lost my identity, so I didn't want to live on this earth. That's why I went there." (Bold letters: Taro added)

Taro, who did not want to be identified fully, was swimming in debt and had been evicted from his company apartment. He lost financial control, which he believes to be the foundation of any stable life, he said. "You need money to survive. If you have a girlfriend, you need money. If you want to get married, you need it for your life. Money is always necessary for your life."

...He started to wander, he said. He collapsed after days and lay in the bushes, nearly dead from dehydration, starvation and frostbite. He would lose his toes on his right foot from the frostbite. But he didn't lose his life, because a hiker stumbled upon his nearly dead body and raised the alarm.

....Japan's suicide rate, already one of the world's highest, has increased with the recent economic downturn. There were 2,645 suicides recorded in January 2009, a 15 percent increase from the 2,305 for January 2008, according to the Japanese government.

The Japanese government said suicide rates are a priority and pledged to cut the number of suicides by more than 20 percent by 2016. It plans to improve suicide awareness in schools and workplaces. But officials fear the toll will rise with unemployment and bankruptcies, matching suicide spikes in earlier tough economic times.

"Unemployment is leading to this," said Toyoki Yoshida, a suicide and credit counselor."Society and the government need to establish immediate countermeasures to prevent suicides. There should be more places where they can come and seek help."

Yoshida and his fellow volunteer, Norio Sawaguchi, posted signs in Aokigahara Forest urging suicidal visitors to call their organization, a credit counseling service. Both men say Japanese society too often turns a cold shoulder to the unemployed and bankrupt, and breeds a culture where suicide is still seen as an honorable option.

Well, many Japanese choose to kill themselves if they have some difficulties. I think it comes from "Samurai culture" and it is out of date. It should be revised and reconsidered.

However, I am always wondering why many Japanese people are unable to enjoy their modern affluent life with joy. The life in Japan is very enviable and pleasant to many international people, because in many countries the freedom of speech and idea and belief is restricted and some democratic people are in jail. It's unbelievable here in Japan.

Anyway, we should feel much happier than we now do. For me, my life is always good enough to enjoy.

Japan's Beauty

Keynesian beauty contest: I am not sure if she is hot to international people. I like her best as an actress.

She is a very famous movie actress, Fujiko Yamamoto, in Japan and the above photo("From the world of Yuji Hayata, STAR", Bungei-Shunju, 1989) is my favorite one.

Ha~, I want to have a drink with her at a little quiet bar...

Appendix:
It's a well-known episode: After Ms. Yamamoto graduated from high school, she applied for the Bank of Japan, BOJ. She did well in the paper exam, but she failed in the interview. A few decades later, the interviewer confessed the reason to one magazine: "She was so beautiful that he couldn't employ her for fear that many male workers couldn't concentrate on their own duties."

Ms. Yamamoto then thought that the coming age was for women to get their own jobs, so she decided to take the way to movie actress. She was one of the first independent professional women in Japan.

By the way, if this BOJ interviewer had decided to hire her, we now could never see and feel in love with her. So I' m not sure if I should appreciate this interviewer, but as a result we could be proud that we have a greatly respectful Japanese woman who has great beauty and intelligence.

Spam Report

Today I had a spam report: This blog was reported as a spam.

This blog is neither for the purpose of hurting and insulting some particular people nor of blaming you for some particular, especially, political or religious, ideas.

This blog is for the purpose of giving you and me a nice and fresh opportunity of exchange of different opinions. Recently I've tried to give you some beautiful photos.

I hope anybody will talk to me about what he or she is thinking and interested in.

I might have had something to say or to show that someone doesn't like or feels bad about.

I would like to say to someone who reported this blog as a spam, "sorry, sorry, please forgive me. I know I am so ignorant!!"

I wanted to say that it was a great challenge to sound democracy and freedom of speech or idea, but now I feel so sorry about this happening. :(

Maki

I was surprised at this very long maki (seaweed-rolled sushi).

When I went shopping at, say, Whole Foods and other grocery stores in the US, I found them selling a variety of makis. In the US, maki looks more familiar sushi than I thought before. Maybe it is much easier for them to eat and I think it is the Japanese version of fast food like hot dog and hamburger in the US.

I like both hamburger and maki very much.

We never make maki as in the above photo but sometimes for local community advertisement some people do like that.

Romer on the Great Depression

I have found the recent must reading. Christina Romer gave us 6 lessons from the Great Depression. Here's just the summary:

(1) A small fiscal expansion has only small effects.

(2) Monetary expansion can help to heal an economy even when interest rates are near zero.

(3) Beware of cutting back on stimulus too soon.

(4) Financial recovery and real recovery go together.

(5) Worldwide expansionary policy shares the burdens and the benefits of recovery.

(6) The Great Depression did eventually end.

Sakura

We will be soon able to see sakura like the above.

Krugman on Japan

Krugman of Princeton, an economist whom I've loved and respected ever, talked about the recent Japan.

For a decade or so Japan’s lost decade has been the great bugaboo of modern macroeconomics. Economists constantly warned that you mustn’t do X or you must do Y, because otherwise we’ll turn into Japan. And policymakers congratulated themselves in advance for not being like their Japanese counterparts, who dithered and drifted, refusing to make hard decisions.

Well, I’m sure I’m not the only person to notice this: Japan doesn’t look so bad these days.

For one thing, the famed sluggishness of Japanese policy — the refusal to face up to banking system losses and pour in the funds needed to recapitalize the system, the refusal to let zombie banks die, the stop-go nature of fiscal policy, with concerns about rising debt warring with concerns about the economy — all of that seems entirely comprehensible now, doesn’t it? Even with the knowledge of what happened to Japan to motivate us, so far we’re following exactly the same path.

And given what the next couple of years are likely to look like, Japan’s lost decade — yes, growth was slow, but there wasn’t mass unemployment or mass suffering — is actually starting to look pretty good. We may or may not be about to face our own lost decade, but the sheer misery millions of Americans will face in the near future probably exceeds anything that happened in Japan during the 90s.

I still hope we can do better than the Japanese did, but it’s not at all obvious that we will.

I hope so too:)

Seeing is Believing

I had a big smile...:)

Is Macroeconomics Really True?

When the economy is down, people always say that it’s the time when it needs the governmental expenditure like tax cut or large public programs. This discussion is based on "the theory of multiplier effect".

However, is there really a multiplier effect?

Ono Yoshiyasu of Osaka University says an interesting thing, "there's no multiplier effect in the world": An increase in government purchases leads to an even greater increase in income,…the ratio is called the government-purchases multiplier. Mankiw (2003), pp262.

It doesn't look at what the government purchases are, but how much dollars are paid for the government purchases.It says that building a large pyramid and beginning a war is more effective on demand than letting the unemployed do nothing with unemployment insurance.

Is that true? No!!!

(1)Illegal parking

If the government hires the unemployed as a parking guardian, it pays wages to them and in result there's no increase in demand because the wages would be the same as the unemployment insurance paid to them if they weren't hired as a parking guardian. The difference is a decrease in illegal parking in the street.

From the viewpoint of government budget, the government just transfers money from one to the other group of people in the nation. Neither increase in demand nor stimulus to demand.

A balanced budget has no effect on people's consumption and income. A balanced budget multiplier is said to be 1, and there's no increase in income and demand.

(2)Numerical example

Assume GDP is $500 and the government collects $50 from people as a tax and builds a large pyramid for the $50. In this case, the government hires them and the national income is now counted as $550.

However, the people paid the tax of $50 to the government and were just paid back $50 for the construction of large pyramid; they never became wealthy.

A debt-financed government purchases has no effect on income and demand either because people know that today's government purchases should be tomorrow's tax increase.

(3)Summing up

In every case there's no multiplier effect on the economy; the effect of the government purchases on income and demand, which is based on Keynes's theory, is a seeming increase in income in the national income account, but not a real increase in income in the real economy.

However, at the time of recession, some people are unemployed and it would be worth while the government hiring them to do some large public projects because the government projects are valuable in the economy.

The resources (goods and labor services) aren't used well at the time of recession and the government could lose nothing when it used such resources even though the cost was very high.The above opinion seems reasonable to me, but somewhat different from what many textbooks of macroeconomics tell us. What do you think of this discussion?

References

(1) Mankiw, N. Gregory (2003), macroeconomics, 5th edition, worth publishers,

(2) Ono, Yoshiyasu (2006), logically paradoxical "multiplier effect", Nihon-Keizai-Shimbun (only Japanese)

Taro in Madison

I went to Madison,WI: It's a very beautiful city. I want to go there again. These pictures are my short memory. I do want to go back again to USA, the country I love best. (The above picture is one of the youth hostel in Madison.)



This is a hamburger that was sold in a shop near the UW-Madison. To my surprise, it was not greasy, rather very tasty.

A Bad Idea?

The centerpiece of Prime Minister Taro Aso's big stimulus package has been a one-time cash handout of 12,000 yen, or about $120, to each resident. The idea has been widely panned by political foes, economists and the public alike as a wasteful, ineffective idea. (Mainichi Japan) March 5, 2009

We will soon be able to have a cash handout of around $120 and I am wondering what I should spend it on.

Some economists suggest that such money should go to the most needy or to the more public programs like reforming school and hospital buildings and roads and bridges.

I think there're pros and cons in the viewpoint of, say, morality (is it good for us to be given money without any effort?), but I don't think that a one-shot helicopter cash is so a bad idea as to stimulate and to revive the economy, but it's on the condition that we'll definitely spend it on something sold in the economy. It doesn't make sense if we don't spend but save it instead, I mean, if so, the cash will just be moved from government's to people's safe; It won't result in anyone's further income and then further expenditure.

So we have to use this cash to eat, to drink, to buy the clothing that we've wanted, and so on. The economy now needs stimulating the consumption first and investment second, as many econ textbooks tell. However,the impact of this stimulus policy is thought to be temporary, not permanent so we won't be able to expect that the economy will strongly recover forever.

(In the above picture, a man is handing in the envelopes of the cash. The time to spend is coming soon.)

Black; Group Psychology?

When I read a newspaper, one reader's column caught my eye:

I've seen many students looking for job recently and wondered why they all are wearing black suits. Asking my neighbor about it, I was explained that it was a common trend and if anyone wore a different suit, he or she would be conspicuous. .... I think the way of dealing with everything in the same way should be thrown away... (Yomiuri, 02/03/2009)

Well,..I agree and that's just what I wonder when I see students hunting for job in a city this season. I know the reason also(and the neighbor is almost right.) and maybe that's kind of one of the Japanese behavioral characteristics.

The Japanese people have been taught to listen to others first and not to say words that may hurt someone, or to say what they want to after thinking over what impact they will have on others by saying it. Therefore, it is, I am not sure, the reason why many Japanese people are likely to look around before expressing themselves.

Hmm,...I don't know if the above behavior is very similar to that seen in other countries, say, USA or Germany, but, of course, I agree on the idea that people should say what they want to after thinking about whether or not it is appropriate; It's one of basically social manners regardless of which country we live in.

However, it seems to me that it's the very Japanese-like social and conventional behavior. I don't know if this trend should be modified, but, as this reader puts, it may make us somewhat suffocated. Well,... I like much brighter scenery, though.

Four Legs Good, Two Legs Bad

By Paul Kennedy, Tribune Media Services, Posted 01/23/2009 at 4:00 pm EST

"Four legs good, two legs bad!" That quotation, as many readers will know, comes from George Orwell's great political satire "Animal Farm." It is the slogan invented by the pigs as they mobilize the other farm animals to revolt against their human owners.

Having four supports ensures that things are much more stable, balanced, assured; it is hard to knock a four-legged item down, whether it be a table or a carthorse. Two-legged critters are far less sturdy and reliable. (Of course, once the pigs gain absolute control and learn to walk on their hind legs, they reverse the slogan, as any good Leninist would. But that is a different story.)

Still, there may be a lesson to glean from this tale as we look at today's battered world economy, with no countries really escaping from the international financial credit crunch and the dramatic slackening of demand for goods and services, but some looking better than others.

If, as is the case, certain economic sectors have been hurt more than others, surely it is better to have one's national welfare based upon various sources of income, rather than just two, or even one.

I was provoked to this question when recently clearing away some older statistical data, and recalling how my interest in what makes for a healthy economy had been piqued some 20 or so years ago when I came across a World Bank table of national GDP per capita that showed that Switzerland and Kuwait, both at the top of the list, enjoyed almost exactly the same income per inhabitant.

Kuwait's high per capita income derived, of course, entirely from one source: oil. By contrast, the sources of Switzerland's ample wealth derived from at least four flows of earnings: its strength in banking, insurance and investment services; its array of high-quality (i.e. high-added-value) manufactures, especially engineering and pharmaceutical products; its income from tourism; and its highly protected and high-income agricultural sector. Four sturdy legs indeed.

Now, there are another 175 or more countries in the world that would have loved to have had Kuwait's oil revenues over the past few decades; yet it is fair to say that such an overwhelming reliance upon a single valuable product brings with it two great risks:

The first, to which we pay less attention, is the way in which a gushing new source of wealth has an insidious way of driving out, or weakening, other sources of national income.

Men no longer wish to work for traditional industries (fishing, farming, forestry) but for the oil industry. The vast inflow of oil income dries up prices, but, hey, that can be afforded. Foreign-made items -- automobiles, electronic goods, hotels, airports -- sprout up, but oil pays for it.

There are no gasoline taxes, and prices at the pump are artificially low. Unless national governance is strong and responsible, corruption reigns and the economy is twisted; just look at Nigeria and Venezuela today. Even Norway, with its traditions of public service and fiscal prudence, struggles to handle the "Midas curse" of a single flow of wealth.

The second risk is one we are more familiar with today: It is the peril of a sudden collapse of the world-traded price of your precious commodity. This was not just the case of the plunge in oil prices this past year but also of the value of almost all raw products -- bauxite, copper, timber, rubber and so on.

Many developing nations, their hopes raised by higher commodity prices, are now reeling backward. One might be pleased that such uncomfortable nations like Russia, Venezuela and Iran are hurting from the collapse of oil prices, but one can hardly be delighted at the profound cash-flow crises affecting numerous Third World countries; be careful what you wish for when you pray for a fall in raw-material goods!

Those nations whose economies rest upon four or more legs, and are inherently more stable, should also pay attention to the "Animal Farm" chant, though for a slightly different reason.

Switzerland, the model balanced economy cited above, is itself hurting right now because it allowed its banking/investment "leg" -- specifically the careless, massive investment actions of a few leading banks -- to have disproportionate significance, with nasty effects upon the country's reputation as a bastion of solid, respectable finance.

Even more sobering is the dramatic reversal of fortunes of the Republic of Ireland over the past two years. The "Celtic Tiger" has enjoyed many advantages over the past decades: membership in the EU and the Euro, a growing assembly/manufacturing base, a flourishing services industry, solid agriculture and high tourism.

But it has squandered much of its gain by a disproportionate tilt into reckless investment banking and a grotesque expansion into untenable property mortgages. In other words, one leg of Ireland's economic "table" grew so fat and so tall that it actually bent the table itself; right now, the crockery is sliding off the far edges, with painfully loud crashes.

Neither George Orwell, nor the rapacious pigs of "Animal Farm," were trained economists, but in their observation about "Four legs good!" I think they were on to something. What has been happening in today's epic financial turbulences should bring us all back to a few basic verities about life and money: Don't put all your eggs in one basket; cover your bets; seek, if you are a political leader, to get a grasp of your country's array of strengths and weaknesses; and avoid the fast-cash Midas curse, if you can.

What does this say to the world's most powerful economy, America's? The United States has entered the 21st century at a time when the longer-term global balances are shifting from a so-called uni-polar system to more of a multi-polar order; in that sense, there is no real contest over America's relative decline -- the power balances are always on the move.

Yet it is also true that the pace of that shift has been increased, unnecessarily, by years of excessive military actions abroad, a blatant disregard for sensible fiscal policies, and unbelievable stupidities in the real-estate/mortgage markets, all of which leave President Obama with an awful lot of smashed china that has fallen off America's twisted table.

But Obama also inherits a nation with a lot of residual strengths, if he can activate and orchestrate them. America is not a country with a singular dependency like Kuwait, nor is it as distorted by financial excesses as (help us) Ireland. It has enormous natural resources, from agriculture to energy supplies of various forms; incredibly favorable demographics, compared with those of any of the other big Powers; vast R-and-D and research-university strengths; and remarkable labor flexibility.

Of course, it has many domestic sores: the twin curse of poverty and under-education; blighted cities and weakened infrastructure; sclerotic, interest-influenced politics; and a landscape presently choked up by half-built McMansions and foreclosed condos -- not a pretty sight. The prospect is not grand. It is, also, not hopeless.

How any country, its leaders and its people respond to today's challenges will depend upon themselves, their insight, resolve and determination to make hard choices. Whatever they do, they might recall Orwell's pigs: having four (or more) supporting pillars is a better framework for a national economy than resting upon two legs, worse still, upon only one.

I like this article.

One Success Model

When I watched TV, I felt like I touched on "the recent gloomy Japan":

One TV program covered an able salesman and his success story:

Ryu Murakami, a famous writer in Japan, asked him,

"Excuse me, what's your educational background?"

"I'm a high school graduate.", he replied.

It sounds like a success in his or her life has nothing to do with his or her educational attainment.

Prof. Otake, a labor economist of Osaka Univ., says the same as what I want to:

I was asked before, "what do you think is our next success model although now is almost at the end of the time of the success one, "the first-class school, the first-class company?" Then there seemed to me to be just only one success model behind this question.

Although actually there are different people, different values and different success stories even here in Japan, just only one success model has ever been believed in, I guess. This may show the cause of the gloomy days of Japan. (Translator: Taro)

That's what I've felt recently; When we feel depressed, our foresight could be narrower and we could get more pessimistic and thus more conservative.

If we had wider a variety of choices to take in such a gloomy situation, we would feel more relieved from a narrow mind and would think of our near future as much brighter than we ever expected. This post is the English version of it.

成功モデル

テレビを見ていて思うのは、「この国の閉塞感」である。

とある番組で、やり手営業マンとその成功を取材していた。

作家の村上龍氏が、「失礼ですが、学歴は？」と訊き、

「高卒です。」とその営業マン。

私の見方では、「学歴は成功に関係ない」とでもいいたいようである。私の言を阪大の大竹氏が見事に代弁する。

私は以前、アンケートで、「一流大学卒業、一流企業入社という成功モデルが崩れた今、これからの成功モデルはなんですか」という質問を受けたことがある。 その時、私はそのアンケート作成者が、単一の成功モデルしか頭になかった人なんだろう、と感じた。現実には、日本にも結構いろんな価値観があって、様々な 成功モデルがあるのに、単一の成功モデルだけを信じてきたのだと思う。実際、それが日本の閉塞感の原因かもしれない。

まったく同感だ。

It's the Time to Spend

We need the bills now!

St.Valentine's Day

Here's a St. Valentine's day's chocolate!!

政府紙幣について

景気対策の一環として自民党内で構想が浮上。導入には慎重論が強い一方、発行を検討する議連も発足。

日銀券とは別に政府自身が発行する「政府紙幣」の可能性を検討する自民党の議員連盟（会長・田村耕太郎参院議員）が10日、同党本部内で初会合を開き、政 府紙幣発行を提唱している元財務官僚の高橋洋一東洋大教授から意見を聞いた。高橋教授は25兆円規模の政府紙幣を発行し、景気対策の財源に充てるよう訴え た。２月10日 - 16時19分　(時事通信)

2月7日8時5分配信 産経新聞

追加経済対策の原資として、政府紙幣や相続税減免付き無利子国債の発行を求める声が自民党内で強まっている。政府は慎重姿勢を崩さないが、麻生太郎首相 の盟友である安倍晋三元首相や菅義偉選対副委員長が後押しし始めただけに、議論はますますヒートアップする公算が大きい。２つの政策にはどのような長所短 所があるのか。そして推進派議員の思惑は－。（石橋文登）

　「１００年に１度の危機には１００年に１度の対応が必要だ。プラス、マイナス両面をよく検討し、政治家として強い意志と覚悟をもって進めていきたい」

　６日午後、党本部で開かれた「政府紙幣・無利子国債（相続税減免措置付き）発行を検討する議員連盟」の設立準備会合で、菅氏はこう語気を強めた。反麻生 色の強い「若手改革派」だけでなく、首相の腹心である菅氏が動き出したことに大きな意味がある。１０日に正式発足させ、週１回の勉強会を続け、３月末まで に提言をまとめる方針だ。

　≪実現性薄く≫

　この２つの政策は、元財務官僚で竹中平蔵元総務相のブレーンである元財務官僚の高橋洋一東洋大教授らが提唱した。政府紙幣は、現行の日本銀行券とは別に 政府が発行する紙幣で、財政赤字を出さずにデフレ防止・インフレ誘導でき、経済活性化に効果があるといわれる。相続税減免国債は高齢富裕層の「眠っている 資産」を市中に引き出す効果が期待されている。

　だが、政府紙幣は、市中の混乱を招きかねない上、日銀が引き受ければ、無利子・無期限国債を日銀に引き受けさせることと同じ意味となることもあり、自民党でも評判は悪い。

　伊吹文明元幹事長は「政府紙幣はマリフアナと同じだ」、津島雄二党税調会長は、「（詐欺事件となった）『円天』みたいなものだ」と酷評した。

　６日の衆院予算委員会でも議題となったが、与謝野馨経済財政担当相は「取るに足らない話だ」、中川昭一財務相も「私の頭にそういう考えはない」と一蹴 （いっしゅう）した。首相も「（明治政府の）太政官札か？　そういう話は昔からある」（２日）と冷淡に語っており、実現の可能性は薄い。

　≪日銀に圧力≫

　だが、菅氏には、論議を盛り上げることにより、世間を驚かせるような政策を導き出し、政権の求心力を高めたいとの思いがある。同時に、「いつも対応が後手に回る」との批判が強い日本銀行を揺さぶり、紙幣増刷などを促す狙いもあるようだ。

　一方、相続税減免国債については政府側も「かなり金融や財政に詳しい方もそういうことを言われているので、ちょっと勉強しようと思う」（与謝野氏）、 「世界の国々がどういう景気対策をとっているか。勉強の中でいろんなアイデアが出てくるのは結構なことだ」（河村建夫官房長官）と含みを残す。

　ただ、相続税減免国債はニーズがどれほどあるか不透明な上、野党から「金持ち優遇政策」と批判が起きる可能性もあり、公平性をどう担保するかが大きな課題となる。

　とはいえ、今後の経済対策に原資は不可欠だ。政府・与党で今後も議論が盛り上がれば、新たなプレミアム付きの国債や記念通貨や記念紙幣などが浮上する可能性もある。

2月6日8時11分配信 読売新聞

自民党の一部で景気対策として取りざたされている政府紙幣の発行に対し、５日の各派閥の総会で批判が続出した。 　伊吹派の伊吹文明・前財務相は、「マリフアナと同じだ」と断じた。「日銀以外に政府が紙幣を供給すれば円の価値が下がり、大変なインフレを招来する。議 論するだけでも国益を損なう」と指摘し、「政治家が有権者にマリフアナを吸わせ、いい気分にして票をとろうという意図でやってはいけない」と切り捨てた。 　津島派の津島雄二税制調査会長は、疑似通貨「円天」を使ったＬ＆Ｇ詐欺事件になぞらえ、「下手をすると『円天』みたいなものを政府がやるという話にな る」と語った。高村派の高村正彦・前外相も「中央銀行の一元管理が大切なことは、歴史上人類が学んできた知恵だ」と強調した。 　突然、浮上した政府紙幣構想は、派閥領袖が次々に反対の声を上げたことで、このまま沈静化するのだろうか。

2月6日0時47分配信 毎日新聞

　景気対策の財源として自民党内で浮上している「政府紙幣」導入論に対し、５日の党派閥会合では反対意見が相次いだ。伊吹派の伊吹文明前財務相は「政府が 供給すれば円安になり、大変なインフレを招来する」と指摘。「人間は疲れると、酒に紛らわせることがある。政治家が有権者にマリフアナを吸わせて票を取る ことは絶対にしないでほしい」と同派議員に呼びかけ、菅義偉選対副委員長ら推進派を皮肉った。

　津島派の津島雄二党税制調査会長は「まさか、『円天』みたいなものを政府がやるというバカな話ではないと思う」と述べ、電子マネーによる巨額詐欺事件に 引っ掛け批判した。山崎派の山崎拓前副総裁は「私は無利子・相続税非課税の国債を発行し、眠れる民間資金の活用を提案している」と語った。政府紙幣は借金 を増やさずに財源を調達できるのが利点とされるが、麻生太郎首相はじめ政府・自民党内では否定論が大勢を占めている。【中田卓二】

2月7日8時33分配信 フジサンケイ　ビジネスアイ

景気対策として浮上している政府紙幣や、相続税免除条件付きの無利子国債に対する議論が活発化する中、自民党の菅義偉（すが・よしひで）選対副委員長ら は６日、「政府紙幣・無利子国債発行を検討する議員連盟（仮称）」の設立準備会を開き、政策提案に向けた議論をスタートさせた。ただ、政府紙幣への反対論 は強く、実現するかは未知数だ。 　準備会で菅氏は「従来の発想を超えた対策が必要だ」と強調した。政府紙幣と無利子国債の効果や問題点を精査し、実効性が確認できれば、政府に提案する方針だ。３月末までに結論をまとめる。 　関係者によると、議論を進める中で、日銀に対し積極的な景気対策を促す狙いもあるという。 　政府紙幣には政府・与党内からも反対論が多い。一方、相続税免除条件付き無利子国債については、与謝野馨経済財政担当相が６日の閣議後会見で、「勉強しようと思っている」と検討する考えを示した。 　ただ、財務省幹部は無利子国債が導入されれば、「資金が株から国債に流れて株式市場に影響が出る」ことなどの弊害も指摘している。

2月6日21時49分配信 産経新聞

追加経済対策の原資として、政府紙幣や相続税減免付き無利子国債の発行を求める声が自民党内で強まっている。政府は慎重姿勢を崩さないが、麻生太郎首相 の盟友である安倍晋三元首相や菅義偉選対副委員長が後押しし始めただけに、議論はますますヒートアップする公算が大きい。２つの政策にはどのような長所短 所があるのか。そして推進派議員の思惑は－。（石橋文登）

　「１００年に１度の危機には１００年に１度の対応が必要だ。プラス、マイナス両面をよく検討し、政治家として強い意志と覚悟をもって進めていきたい」

　６日午後、党本部で開かれた「政府紙幣・無利子国債（相続税減免措置付き）発行を検討する議員連盟」の設立準備会合で、菅氏はこう語気を強めた。反麻生 色の強い「若手改革派」だけでなく、首相の腹心である菅氏が動き出したことに大きな意味がある。１０日に正式発足させ、週１回の勉強会を続け、３月末まで に提言をまとめる方針だ。

　この２つの政策は、元財務官僚で竹中平蔵元総務相のブレーンである元財務官僚の高橋洋一東洋大教授らが提唱した。政府紙幣は、現行の日本銀行券とは別に 政府が発行する紙幣で、財政赤字を出さずにデフレ防止・インフレ誘導でき、経済活性化に効果があるといわれる。相続税減免国債は高齢富裕層の「眠っている 資産」を市中に引き出す効果が期待されている。

　だが、政府紙幣は、市中の混乱を招きかねない上、日銀が引き受ければ、無利子・無期限国債を日銀に引き受けさせることと同じ意味となることもあり、自民党でも評判は悪い。

　伊吹文明元幹事長は「政府紙幣はマリフアナと同じだ」、津島雄二党税調会長は、「（詐欺事件となった）『円天』みたいなものだ」と酷評した。

　６日の衆院予算委員会でも議題となったが、与謝野馨経済財政担当相は「取るに足らない話だ」、中川昭一財務相も「私の頭にそういう考えはない」と一蹴 （いっしゆう）した。首相も「（明治政府の）太政官札か？　そういう話は昔からある」（２日）と冷淡に語っており、実現の可能性は薄い。

　だが、菅氏には、論議を盛り上げることにより、世間を驚かせるような政策を導き出し、政権の求心力を高めたいとの思いがある。同時に、「いつも対応が後手に回る」との批判が強い日本銀行を揺さぶり、紙幣増刷などを促す狙いもあるようだ。

　一方、相続税減免国債については政府側も「かなり金融や財政に詳しい方もそういうことを言われているので、ちょっと勉強しようと思う」（与謝野氏）、 「世界の国々がどういう景気対策をとっているか。勉強の中でいろんなアイデアが出てくるのは結構なことだ」（河村建夫官房長官）と含みを残す。

　ただ、相続税減免国債はニーズがどれほどあるか不透明な上、野党から「金持ち優遇政策」と批判が起きる可能性もあり、公平性をどう担保するかが大きな課題となる。

　とはいえ、今後の経済対策に原資は不可欠だ。政府・与党で今後も議論が盛り上がれば、新たなプレミアム付きの国債や記念通貨や記念紙幣などが浮上する可能性もある。

地域通貨

2月10日15時49分配信 読売新聞

山形県高畠町で流通する地域通貨「ワン券」「ニャン券」や、地元商店街で商品を購入すると付与される「ハッピーシール」で、県・町民税など地方税や公共料金の支払いに使用できるようになった。 発行する高畠商業協同組合の要望などを受けて町で昨年２月から検討し、実施に踏み切った。地域通貨の試みとしては同県内初で、地域活性化につながることが期待されている。 ワン券・ニャン券は１９８６年に発行され、流通残高は昨年９月で約７００万円。１円が１ワン・ニャンに相当し、商品券のように購入する。ハッピーシール は８５年に発行され、同組合の加盟店で１００円の買い物をするごとに１枚もらえる。３５０枚集めると５００円分の商品券になる。いずれも同組合加盟店のみ で使用可能。 これまでの用途に加え、通貨価値はそのままで、県・町民税や固定資産税、後期高齢者医療保険料、水道料金や町営住宅の家賃の支払いなどに利用可能となった。同町役場内のＪＡ窓口でのみ手続き可能。お釣りはでないため、差額は現金で支払う必要がある。 同県大江町でも昨年１月から、商店街で付与されるポイントを税金などの支払いに使える仕組みが行われているが、高畠町などによると、購入もできる地域通貨が広範な公共料金に使える例は県内初。全国でも福島県などに数件しか事例がない珍しい試みだという。 使い道が大幅に増えるため、交換手段としての価値が一気に上昇することによって流通量も増え、地元商店街での商品購入者増加につながると期待されている。 同組合では「地元商店街の活性化に有効な方法と考える。これをきっかけにさらに券やシールの利用が増えてくれれば」としている。 ◆地域通貨◆　ある特定の地域や対象に限って物やサービスの売買に使用される疑似通貨。地域社会の活性化や住民同士の助け合いを狙いとする。ボランティ アや地域の助け合いなど貨幣に換算できないサービスの交換方法として用いられる事が多い。対象や価値は様々で明確な定義はないが、全国で数百の事例がある とされる。

4 Lessons from Recession

What we always care is what lesson we can get from the present recession. A good article from the NY times caught my eye.

Tyler Cowen of George Mason talks to us about the social and cultural effects of recession. I just list the effects I think interesting:


(1) Stay-at-home effect
People spend more time on self-improvement and relatively inexpensive amusements (listening to the radio and playing parlor and board games).

(2) Health-care effect
Physical health seems to improve on average. People may take fewer car trips, thus lowering the risk of accidents, and spend less on alcohol and tobacco. They also have more time for exercise and sleep, and tend to choose home cooking over fast food.

(3) Lower-death-rate effect
The death rate falls as unemployment rises. In the United States, a 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate, on average, decreases the death rate by 0.5 percent. Another research finds that Australia’s suicide rate spiked in 1930, but overall health improved and death rates declined; after 1930, suicide rates declined as well.

(4) Prudent-generation effect
A generation that grows up in a period of low stock returns is likely to take an unusually cautious approach to investing, even decades later, the paper found. Similarly, a generation that grows up with high inflation will be more cautious about buying bonds decades later.

In other words, today’s teenagers stand less chance of making foolish decisions in the stock market down the road. They are likely to forgo some good business opportunities, but also to make fewer mistakes.

I also care Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert's point: people often have rosy memories of very trying periods, which may include extreme poverty or fighting in a war. I agree on this point. Many grandfathers talk proudly about their hardship like the world war 2.

However, a recession or depression is always severe to us.

My recent face

It's my true face...

That's What We Need

Ben Bernanke is spreading dollar bills. We call it "helicopter money".

Farmer's Stimulus Package

Roger Farmer of UCLA is famous for a researcher on multiple equilibria and indeterminacy. This area of study is on how an economy reaches an equilibrium and it should be possibly multiple, just not only one. Which equilibrium path the economy takes depends on people's psychology.

Farmer says, go back to Keynes and boost up people's mind when they face recession:

Keynes... was right on one point: In the real world; psychology matters for the behavior of markets!

Farmer suggests a new type of monetary policy:

Central banks control interest rates by buying and selling securities on the open market....(Central banks) pick an indexed basket of securities: one candidate in the US might be the S&P 500, and to control its price by buying and selling blocks of shares on the open market.

Moreover, Farmer puts emphasis on a role of expectation:

Even the credible announcement that a policy of this kind was being considered should be enough to boost the markets and restore consumer and investor confidence in the real economy.

I am... arguing that the government should stabilize a broad basket of stocks.

Farmer finally keeps a distance from what is called free market fundamentalism:

This policy would still allow poorly run firms to fail but it would not allow all firms to fail at the same time. Although the free market is very good at deciding how many left and right shoes to produce, it cannot prevent systemic risk that arises from the psychology of herd behavior. This is a job for Uncle Sam.

I agree with him! However, looking back on the stimulus package that the Japanese government is seeking, I feel somewhat nervous about the effectiveness of it.

Farmer on Monetary Policy

Roger Farmer of UCLA proposes a new style of monetary policy:

The Fed should target a stock market index in addition to its traditional role of setting the interest rate. My proposal allows the Fed to use variations in the fed funds rate to fight inflation and variations in the growth rate of a stock price index to manage confidence and select a high employment equilibrium.

A fiscal expansion is necessary in the current situation (large slump), but fiscal policy alone is not enough: A stimulus package large enough to restore full employment will increase the debt burden on future generations to an unacceptable level. The time has come to implement a new monetary policy for the 21st century.

He thinks a gloomy economy needs a confidence: people should feel they are getting better and wealthier in order for the economy to recover.

Many people feel bad in the time of recession, in which they always hear sad news(job losses, major company's bankruptcies and so on) and many may suffer from such hardships, so they need something bright for the future.

What is that? I don't know and I don't think you surely know. It is a socially psychological problem. He suggests we need a policy to boost up our mind and confidence and policy makers try to do it.

On Animal Spirits

When I was an undergrad student, I read some books related to Keynes and his theory and I met an impressive term, "animal spirits".

What is an animal spirit? It may be spirits that animals usually have. The character of such spirits may be irrational and sporadic.

I have been not sure what it is and felt that it is what has confused many economists for a long time.

Robert Shiller tells what it is in his terms : people's trust,

A critical aspect of animal spirits is trust, an emotional state that dismisses doubts about others.

Yes, I agree on it but what makes such trust? Nobody knows it for sure and maybe that's why some expansionary policies conducted in Japan during the late 1990s have been ineffective: Japanese government has been failed to make people trust each other by means of its policy.

From this perspective, expansionary policy should be conducted in order to make people believe that they will be successful in their businesses and lives, not just to spend much money only on public projects.

It sounds difficult to do it, but policymakers have to try to, or try to show that they try as hard to as possible.

Obama's Inaugural Address

Thank you. Thank you.

My fellow citizens: I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors.

I thank President Bush for his service to our nation...

... as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.

Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath.

The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.

So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age.

Homes have been lost, jobs shed, businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly, our schools fail too many, and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.

These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable, but no less profound, is a sapping of confidence across our land; a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, that the next generation must lower its sights.

Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real, they are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this America: They will be met.

On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.

On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics.

We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less.

It has not been the path for the faint-hearted, for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame.

Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things -- some celebrated, but more often men and women obscure in their labor -- who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.

For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life. For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West, endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.

For us, they fought and died in places Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sahn.

Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.

This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions -- that time has surely passed.

Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

For everywhere we look, there is work to be done.

The state of our economy calls for action: bold and swift. And we will act not only to create new jobs but to lay a new foundation for growth.

We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.

We will restore science to its rightful place and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality... and lower its costs.

We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.

All this we can do. All this we will do.

Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions, who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short, for they have forgotten what this country has already done, what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose and necessity to courage.

What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them, that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long, no longer apply.

MR. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works, whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified.

Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end.

And those of us who manage the public's dollars will be held to account, to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day, because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.

Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched.

But this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control. The nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous.

The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our gross domestic product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on the ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart -- not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals.

Our founding fathers faced with perils that we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations.

Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake.

And so, to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and we are ready to lead once more.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with the sturdy alliances and enduring convictions.

They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use. Our security emanates from the justness of our cause; the force of our example; the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

We are the keepers of this legacy, guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort, even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We'll begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people and forge a hard- earned peace in Afghanistan.

With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat and roll back the specter of a warming planet.

We will not apologize for our way of life nor will we waver in its defense.

And for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that, "Our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken. You cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you."

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness.

We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus, and nonbelievers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth.

And because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect.

To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy.

To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.

To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds.

And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to the suffering outside our borders, nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages.

We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service: a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves.

And yet, at this moment, a moment that will define a generation, it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies.

It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break; the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours.

It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.

Our challenges may be new, the instruments with which we meet them may be new, but those values upon which our success depends, honesty and hard work, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism -- these things are old.

These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history.

What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility -- a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character than giving our all to a difficult task.

This is the price and the promise of citizenship.

This is the source of our confidence: the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.

This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed, why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall. And why a man whose father less than 60 years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.

So let us mark this day in remembrance of who we are and how far we have traveled.

In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by nine campfires on the shores of an icy river.

The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood.

At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:

"Let it be told to the future world that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive, that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet it."

America, in the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words; with hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come; let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

Thank you. God bless you.

And God bless the United States of America.

From NY times.

On Financial Crisis

These days I am into financial crisis. I am reading a book titled by "The Origin of Financial Crisis" while in a train, and going to read some books related to financial crisis.

Why do we sometimes in our history have such a financial crisis? That's my and many other economists' question and I would like to answer it by myself because I am an econ student who is interested in the related topic.

New Year's Resolution

This year seems more likely to face difficult challenges that a worldly big financial slump brought last year.

This year I will be 28. Time runs so fast. I didn't complete yet what I had decided to do last year.

This year I will complete, at least, one of what I want to do.

My new year's resolution is for my road to economics PhD and to become an economist who can talk about economics by his own words.

(1) Listen to different opinions

I am poor at listening to people with whom I don't agree. It's a great loss. Because I don't try to know what I haven't known yet. I try to listen to and understand others.

(2) Read, write, listen to and speak as much English as possible in my everyday life

I am living in Japan and here there's not much English: nobody speaks English generally and in the book store we never see English written books being sold. It's somewhat difficult to keep using English.

When I went to Potsdam, Germany, I realized that people in Germany faced almost the same situation as those in Japan: in Berlin there's almost no English around us and many people speak German not English.

Some Japanese told me that Germans would speak more English than Japanese but I don't think so.

(3) Help others

Sounds easy to do so but actually it's very difficult to. What's my mission? To help myself become happier and richer? Probably not. Of course, I should be able to make much money to repay the student loan, but to make money is not a final mission.

Help people as they help me. In this world people help each other whereas they kill each other.

(4) Speak by my own words, not by others' words

Unfortunately some economists do not speak by their own words: they just copy famous economists or their textbooks. It's not a good intellectual manner to follow. I don't think they are economists. Certainly it's difficult to speak by my own words. However, I have to do so because I cannot be a good economist otherwise.

(5) Be honest and tolerant

Speak just what I think and listen to what others think. This is somewhat similar to (1) though. Don't get angry because others don't come to follow me. Be kind even though others are upset.

(6) Act quickly and think slowly

Don't hesitate to do what bothers me. If I was asked to do something terrible, I would try to do so as soon as possible, not for others but for myself. And think carefully not to misunderstand the situation in which I am.

(7) Think not only of myself but also of the world in which I live

If I have some difficult problem to deal with, don't think it difficult and don't feel that I am unlucky. From the worldly point of view, it might be so small that I can miss. Moreover, it should become trivial as time goes by. Time will solve it and just wait for luck to come. Am I so optimistic?