Dynamic Scoring

If you cut the tax, how much income could you increase? This is the theme of this article. This is not only so an interesting, but also a practical issue.

Culture of the Tea Party

Everyone doesn't like tax. Tax has really a great political power; brought the American Revolution, caught Al Capone and caused the World War Two(Hawley-Smoot Tariff).

Happiness Needs Trust

The recent development in economic research tells of what is different from the usual textbook of economics:

What he’s found in comparative studies of nations is that both the level of corruption and the degree of trust in society are important predictors of well-being. “Corruption is a measure of trust in society, and trust, it turns out, should be essential to well-being.”

Countries where the level of trust in society is very low have a lot of difficulty thriving economically—so you need a certain level of trust to get moving.

(Trust) will have an extra contribution to human welfare because happier societies are ones where people trust each other and spend a fair amount of time catering to social needs.”

Still Support Mr. Kan

Prime Minister Naoto Kan survived a no-confidence vote in Parliament on Thursday in the 480-seat lower house by a margin of 293 to 152. He could keep power from reverting to the oppositions, Liberal Democratic Party, Komei Party and Your Party, which sponsored the no-confidence vote. (06/02/2011, The New York Times)

At first, some members (faction) loyal to one of the Democratic Party’s heavyweights, Ozawa Ichiro, appeared to vote for the no-confidence measure. But before the vote Mr. Kan implied that he would step down after fulfilling his political duties, and then many of them decided to vote against it.

Yomiuri Shimbun, the leading newspaper read in Japan, summarized that his winning the vote meant a “life-prolonged treatment” for the Kan Administration. However, I guess it meant rather a “unique choice” left available to the ruling party and the oppositions, and the Japanese people.

If Mr. Kan had lost the vote and dissolved the lower house and held a general election, the Democratic Party might lose and the oppositions might win it, but do they have a stronger leadership than does Mr. Kan to take over him? No! No one knows what will happen “after Kan”.

Should Kan Step Down?

There has been a growing tendency to hope that Mr. Kan will leave the office. But I can’t find the clear reason for his leaving the office and can’t understand the people who request him to leave. Yomiuri Shimbun also agrees to his resignation, and reasons that he hasn’t took the leadership to deal with the Big Earthquake disaster on 11 March, and the nuclear power crisis that the quake caused. However, I can see the reasoning as rather the disguise that the oppositions use to draw him out of the office.

What Kan Faces Now

I reduce the political challenges into three that the Kan Administration should tackle: (1) reconstruction of the disaster area, (2) fiscal reform on tax system and social welfare for the coming aging Japan, (3) negotiation for EPA with EU and TPP with the US. And then I would ask you: could someone else solve the problems? Or help the victims better their situations? First of all, we have to ask these questions for those who agree. It is the voters’ right.

If the Democrats (especially faction closer to Ozawa) requested Mr. Kan to step down, they would have to explain to us who will take over him and what better will happen to us. Moreover, if the oppositions requested that (as Mr.Oshima of the LDP did), and then they promised to cooperate with the Democrats to vote for the government budget, the Democrats would have to ask the explanation for who they think will take the next leadership and what they plan to do for the recovery of the disaster and the large budget deficit. (as Mr.Yamai of the Democratic Party did) That should be the responsibility of the ruling party.

What is a True Leadership?

Kakuei Tanaka, now the legendary ex-prime minister of Japan, the accused in the Lockheed Scandal in the late 1970s, and the father of Makiko Tanaka, Democrat, once said to a reporter for the Mainichi Shimbun, “your job is to accuse me, my job is to be accused by you”, and accepted a dinner with him. This is the episode, an old-timer political pundit, Hisaichi Miyake, introduced on a TV program.

Many blame Mr. Kan for his lack of the leadership, but some years ago, ex-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whom now many appraise for his strong leadership, was blamed and cast doubt on by the press.

Needless to say, a leader always faces a fierce conflict of interests in his leading party and Parliament, and has hardship in making an important political choice and decision that may have a great influence on many people’s everyday life and status. The larger his party and Parliament, the more time it takes to harmonize the Diet members’ interests and to get his or her to understand and to pass the budget in Parliament. That is what keeps Mr. Kan inactive and slow to tackle the nuclear crisis. Yes, of course, Mr. Kan should have the responsibility to ask the opposites to pass the bills much more quickly.

It is so natural to blame him for his slow action, unclear statements, and weak leadership that might bear a great risk of a political vacuum. In the background of saying that “a leader should be one accused and criticized”, there should be a political responsibility he should take by completing a careful verification and confirmation of whether the decisions he takes a lot of time to make is really consistent to his belief and idea of politics he talks to the people or the pledges he commits. And this is the leadership that we need now and that we ask Mr. Kan to take.

People usually need a leader like “a knight in a white horse”, which means the leader who leads them to the right direction that they really need to take. However, that’s untrue and, we should note that the best friend of decision-making and action in a parliamentary democracy is “time” itself.

It is natural to ask Mr. Kan to take the action much more quickly for the victims who have no house, but his slow decision and action cannot be the critical reason for his resignation. Not only Mr. Kan but all the Diet members should also tackle and solve the problems at the same time. (How many bills have they submitted since the 3.11 crisis? )

Your Platform, Your Trust

Yomiuri Shimbun suggests that the ruling party completely revise the Democratic Party’s platform, what is called “the Manifesto”. We could remember the very hot summer when the Democratic Party won the general election. It was on 30, August in 2009. It won more than half the seats in the House of Representatives.

The reason is not only that people got rid of the political show of alternating Prime Ministers directed and produced by the LDP, but also that the pledges the Democratic Party committed seemed so new and fresh: for example, the restructuring of civil service, monthly allowance to a family with children (¥26,000 per child), cut in gas tax, free tuition for public high schools, banning of temporary work in manufacturing, and halting of increase in sales tax for the next four years and so on. (Democratic Party of Japan; Wikipedia) These had so a large impact on voters that the LDP, ex-ruling party lost the election.

In the background of the birth of the now Kan Administration, there was the irresponsibility of Mr. Hatoyama, ex-Prime Minister (now a harsh critic of Mr. Kan) who promised to draw the US Army Air Forces (USAAF) out of Okinawa, which I think had much more impact on the Japanese people, but later broke this promise and left the office, and of the factions of the Democratic Party who criticize Mr. Kan just as a TV show pundit without regarding themselves as the leaders belonging to the ruling party.

The Manifesto is a promise to the national people. Some of them vote not for the Democratic Party, but for the Manifesto itself. If they would try to revise it, they should ask the will of the people. That’s the way they can keep themselves trustful. Mr. Ozawa insists that he fulfill the Manifesto, and it is worthwhile praising. Politics should be on the base of a “promise to the people” and begins to have the raison deter by fulfilling it. In the case of breaking it, distrust of politics begins to spread among people, and leads them further into the depth of the political chaos, “the merry-go-round Prime Minister”.

Yes, Kan “Kan”.

Politics builds on the basis of the mutual trust between leaders and the people. Some political philosopher might say it is the “contract” between them. That is why the leaders can lead the people. A true leader is not a knight in a white horse, but one who can face harsh critics sincerely. If you request Mr. Kan to step down, you should post what you think to do next beforehand. The press, I think, should also show the public who will be the next possible Prime Minister, and what he or she should do as a good opinion leader in Japan, even though it is so ridiculous.

In conclusion, I support Mr. Kan.Who is better than him as a Prime Minister to tackle the post-crisis political and fiscal problems? Some pundits predict that it will be much more difficult for Mr. Kan to pass the bills because the oppositions will not support him in Parliament. But who can get the support easier? No one can. Only can Kan, right?

Mr. Kan should pass the budget for the reconstruction of the disaster area first and tackle the related problems. That’s the best (or the only) way to avoid a political vacuum in Japan many fear most, and to help better the victims’ health and welfare.

私はそれでも菅首相を支持する

内閣不信任案
菅内閣に対する不信任決議案は２日午後、衆院本会議で採決され、賛成１５２、反対２９３（投票総数４４５、過半数２２３）で否決された。

不信任案は自民、公明、たちあがれ日本の野党３党が共同提出した。菅首相の政権運営や党運営に批判的な小沢氏支持議員らが、野党に同調して賛成する動きをみせた。５月３１日夜に会談した鳩山由紀夫前首相が首相に退陣を要求。小沢氏は１日夜、不信任案に賛成する意向を表明するなど造反の動きが広がり、不信任案可決の公算が大きくなっていた。（産経新聞、６月２日木曜日）

読売新聞（６月３日）の玉井政治部長は、不信任案の否決は「菅内閣の『信任』」を意味しない、という。「期限付きの延命措置」だという。しかしながら、それは、「延命措置」というより「残された唯一の選択」ではなかったか。このまま総選挙をやれば、民主党は負け、自民党が与党になるかもしれない。しかし、その自民党、又は公明、みんなの党に後を引き継ぐだけの指導力を発揮する者がいるだろうか。いなかった、のではなかったか。

何故菅首相はやめなければならないか
「菅首相退陣」、そして「ポスト菅」の期待が高まっている。しかし、私はどうも菅首相がやめるべき理由が見えない。「菅退陣」を声高に言っている人々を正直理解できない。読売新聞は６月３日の社説で「政府与党が一丸となった機動的な震災対応ができない」ことを「菅首相の責任」とし、「首相退陣」の具体的な理由に掲げるが、理由にはなっていない。むしろ、「3.11」が「首相退陣の理由」として、政治利用、つまり与野党の政局に利用されているように見える。

「ポスト菅」の姿とは
今我々が考えるべき政治課題を３点にまとめよう。①震災復興、②税・社会保障の改革、③TPP・EUとのEPA交渉。そして、こう問いかけよう。「菅首相の退陣」によってこれら３点の問題が早く解決するのか。さらに、「菅首相の退陣」はより多くの国民、特に震災の被害者の理解と福祉向上に役立つか。

この点を我々は真剣に政権与党ならびに野党議員に問わなくてはならない。これは有権者たる我々の責任と義務でもある。

そして、民主党内部の一部（小沢グループ他）が「菅首相の退陣」を要求するならば、「ポスト菅」の具体的構想と、「ポスト菅は菅首相よりもいい政権運営ができること」を早急に国民の前に示すことが必要である。「・・・レポート」でもいい。西岡議長による「西岡論文」はただの「首相退陣要求」に過ぎず、「首相退陣後のヴィジョン」を示さなければならない。

さらに、野党が首相の退陣を要求し（自民大島氏）、その引き換えに予算関連法（特例法）案の成立に協力する、というのであるなら、政権与党である民主・国民新党は「ポスト菅」についてどのように考えているのか、対案を示すように野党側に強く要求すべきである（この点は民主山井氏が指摘している）。これこそ、政権与党の責任である。

指導力とはなにか
昔田中角栄元首相は政治記者に「あなたは批判するのが仕事、私は批判されるのが仕事」と言って、政治記者との会食に快く応じた、というエピソードを政治評論家の三宅久之氏が語っていた。

「指導力のなさ」が菅首相に対して言われるが、強力なリーダーシップを評価される小泉首相もかつて「丸投げ」と揶揄され、そのリーダーシップにマスコミは疑義を投げた。指導者は常に様々な利害調整の場に立たされ、難しい選択とその政策実行を迫られる。指揮する組織が大きければ大きいほど、その調整と意思決定には時間がかかる。国会・党・政権内部での見解・意見の相違も当然でてくる。法案成立のため、協力を仰ぐのに時間がかかる。菅首相の法案成立の「鈍さ」はそこにあるのではないか。もちろん、菅首相は野党に早期に協力をしてもらうことを嘆願すべきである（自民谷垣氏に入閣要請しているが、谷垣氏は断っている。）

とにかく、リーダーに対する「対応が遅い」、「発言がはっきりしない」、「政治空白だ」といった非難・批判は、当然のことである。「指導者は批判されるもの」と言う言葉の背景には、なによりも時間のかかる意思決定が、野党との調整もさることながら、常に自らが信条としてきた政策理念または、国民に約束した公約（マニフェスト）と果たして整合性があるのか、という「周到な検証と確認作業」を常々やり通さなければならない政治的責任を背負っていることがある。この政治的責任を全うすることこそ、「指導力」ではないか。菅首相にそれがあるのか問わなければならない。

人は「白馬の騎士」のようなリーダーを求めるが、議会制民主主義における意思決定と実行の最高の友人は「時間」なのである。「時間がかかる」事を理由に「首相退陣」を求めることは、3.11の対応を早くして欲しいと言う世情から当然ではある。が、3.11の対応は、首相だけの問題でなく、全国会議員の政治責任の下で果たされるべき問題であるはずだ。（国会内で、予算関連・震災復興のための議員立法がこれまでいくつ出ただろうか？地元の後援会の写真ばかりHPに載せてる議員の先生方が多いように思うのは私だけだろうか。）

マニフェストの大きさ
ところで、「首相退陣」とならんで、マニフェストの「大胆な見直し」を読売新聞は唱えるが、２００９年８月３０日に第一党として、衆議院議員総選挙で勝ったのは、首相交代劇に明け暮れる自民党政治への苛立ちもあったが、なによりも「子供手当て」に代表される「民主党のマニフェスト」も大きい。そのマニフェストの政策原資は、特別会計などの霞ヶ関「埋蔵金」でまかなうとし、徹底した「無駄の排除」を掲げて「事業仕分け」にも、ややパフォーマンスであったかもしれないが、着手するとした民主党の意思表明は，国民に自民党にはない「新鮮味と爽快感」を与えたのではなかったか。

しかしながら、「普天間基地問題」について自ら責任を取り辞任した鳩山首相に代わり、菅首相が政権運営するにいたった背景には、そうしたある種の国民に与えた「新鮮味と爽快感」を踏み潰した鳩山首相の、思いつきとしかいえない発言の転換と、自分たちが政権を担うと言う気概に欠如し、評論家郡と化した「（小沢系）民主党議員」がいたのではないだろうか。

マニフェストは国民との約束である。民主党よりも、そのマニフェストに票を投じた人もたくさんいよう。もしこれを変更するのなら、民意を問わなければならないのではないか。マニフェストを何が何でも実行する、という小沢氏の姿勢は評価に値する。政治は「国民との約束」の上で成り立ち、それを果たすことこそ政治の存在理由である。これを裏切れば、政治不信は深まり、日本人はさらなる混迷の淵に突き落とされよう。

嘘つきはあなただ！
そう、政治は「信頼」なのであり、「約束」なのである。政治哲学者なら「契約」と言うかもしれない。その時々の情勢で、もしその契約を変更するのなら、事前に報告し、民意を問うのが、政治の信頼を損なわない良策である。

そして、その「約束」に基づき、信任された松木議員の「造反」についても疑問がわく。松木氏に問いただしたい。「先生、『造反』を国民と約束してきましたか」と。横粂議員について、「先生、民主党を離党すると約束されましたか？」と。そして、いささか政治家として「発言の重み」を自覚しない「不信任案に賛成するといって反対に転じた」民主党議員の方々に「あなたがたこそ、嘘つきだ」と。「あなたがたこそ、政治不信の元凶だ」と。

評論家をしたいのなら、議員バッチをはずし、私と同じように民間で活動すべきだ。税金で評論家活動をしないでいただきたい。政治家の仕事は、「菅辞めろ」などという「評論」ではなく、日々日本を取り巻く環境を研究し、関係者のヒアリングを重ね、法律を作り、実行に向けたスキームを国民に示し、国民と対話することである。それができないであるなら、議員辞職すべきである。

菅首相のやるべきこと
真のリーダーとは「白馬の騎士」ではなく、「厳しい批判に真剣に直面できる」人である、と私は考える。メディアのいっていることはやはり間違っているように思う。「菅首相退陣」を求める読売新聞も、「ポスト菅」を示していない。「世論形成」に値する誠意と責任ある報道をやるならば、多少ばかげた空論でもいいから、「ポスト菅」を示すべきだ。

しかし、私は菅首相は辞めるべきでない、と考えている。「第２次予算案・特例法案を成立させ、３．１１対応に全力を尽くすべきである。」この一言に尽きる。誰かもっといい首相候補がいるだろうか。誰が、何を、どのようにするのか。ちゃんと示してから、「首相退陣」を論じるべきだ。菅首相は今ただやるべき上記のことを実行すればよい。これこそが、政治空白を防止し、国民の福祉に寄与する唯一の残された良い選択なのである。

Stagnation and Inflation

Here's Paul Krugman's article. That's awesome!

Worry Makes Us Happy!?

...worry about success causes students to study harder to gain admission to better universities. It makes assistant professors work harder to earn tenure. It leads film makers to strive harder to create the perfect scene, and songwriters to dig deeper for the most pleasing melody. In every domain, people who work harder are more likely to succeed professionally, more likely to make a difference.

Good post! If we face difficult situations to tackle, we should remember that this is the next step we should take.

自殺について

自殺についての詳細なデータである。

（１）自殺死亡率の年次推移をみると、明治32年の5,932人から昭和11年の15,423人までは増加傾向を示しているが、昭和12年から戦時中まで減少傾向となっている。戦後についてみると、ドッジライン以降のデフレ不況（1949～1950）、なべ底不況（1957～58）と第１次平成不況（1991～93）、第２次平成不況（1997～2000）では特に高い推移を示しているように見える。明治以降一貫して、自殺率は増加しているように見える。

（２）性・特定年齢別自殺死亡率をみると、自殺死亡率は男性の方が多く、男性の５０～５４歳台の自殺率の増加が目に付く。

（３）性・年齢階級別死亡数に占める自殺死亡数の割合、自殺の死因順位をみると、平成15年の自殺死亡数の総死亡数に占める割合は、男女とも「25～29歳」が最も高くなっている。

（４）死亡曜日別にみた自殺をみると、月曜日が多く、死亡時間別にみた自殺では、男は「０時台」「５時台～６時台」が多くなっており、女は「５時台～６時台」「10時台～12時台」が多い。月別にみた自殺では、多くの年で４・５月がピークになっており、配偶関係別にみた自殺では、男は平成７年・12年ともに「離別」がすべての年齢階級で高く、女は40歳以上については、「未婚」が「離別」と同程度となっている。

（５）都道府県別にみた自殺では、　最高は男女とも秋田県、手段別自殺死亡数割合では、「首吊り」が最も多く、男女ともに14大都市では「飛び降り」が多くなっており、郡部では「縊首」「薬 物」が多くなっている。

（６）職業・産業別にみた自殺では、「就業者総数」では男32.9、女8.9、「無職」では男70.8、女21.9となっており、特に男の「無職」が高くなっている。また、就業者を職業別にみると、男女ともに「第１次産業」が高くなっている。男では特に「サービス職業従事者」が高くなっている。

非常にラフなまとめであるが、「男で、２０歳代後半、未婚か離別、無職または第１次産業かサービス産業従事者、秋田県在住で、４月か５月の月曜日の明け方５時ぐらいに自殺しやすい」と言う結論が得られる。これが何を物語るのかは分からないが、傾向として見られるようだ。

On Suicide

I am used to watching the newspaper reporting the suicide of the well-known in Japan. I am interested in this social problem because there are some people who don't want to live longer even in one of the economically well- developed countries in the world, Japan.

The Economist seeks the cause a little bit, though it seems to be somewhat frequently pointed out by western people:

The samurai tradition views suicide as noble (though perhaps out of self-interest, since captured warriors were treated gruesomely). Japan's main religions, Buddhism and Shintoism, are neutral on suicide, unlike Abrahamic faiths that explicitly prohibit it.

As is known in Japan, Japanese people have not been more religious. Rather, that may be possible to think of as one of the causes: they are less likely to think that life is something blissful given to us from the heaven, or, that committing a suicide is morally a bad thing as the above excerpt implies.

The Economist goes, Financial concerns are cited in one-fifth of suicide notes; almost half of all suicides are unemployed.

However, the unemployment rate is much higher in France(7.4%) and Germany(7.5%) than in Japan(4.0%). (Data is as of 2008, OECD) It seems to me that unemployment is not so closely related to suicide rate. Economic reason is one of the influential, but is not most influential in the suicide behavior. Anyway, this suicide rate tells that something is wrong with the Japanese society.

Facebook, Blogger, Twitter, and Youtube

Ten years ago, we never had blog, twitter, facebook and youtube. Now we enjoy them everyday and, for many people, joining facebook has became part of their everyday life. Recently I've been busy dropping comments on the facebook and haven't updated this blog.

What does this change in informational technology bring to us?

While updating the blog, I am wondering if we've really changed the world view by using facebook, twitter, youtube and blog: We can so easily catch up with what is happening in the world by using them.

We don't necessarily need to find the people in other place. Use facebook to search whom you want to make friends with. We don't necessarily check up TV programs. Use youtube to find out what we want to watch most. We don't necessarily meet people at the cafeteria to chat. Use twitter to say something trivial. We don't necessarily opine to the press. Use blogger to write down what you have in mind.

Certainly we are now in the world that is different from the ten-year-ago world. Could we have imagined what this world is like ten years ago?

Now we spend our time on some activities that were never experienced ten years ago. Our society and economy must change in some different way. We never imagine what the end will be like. I don't have any pessimistic view on this technologically informational change.

Rather I would feel like writing that our future will be very bright: People talk to each other without any political constraint. In Egypt, people drew down Mubarak from the power. We never thought of it without having this informational change(How could a very large number of people get together immediately?). We now have a powerful tool to change the world view and the world itself.

I try to foresee what this technological change is bringing to us.

Rebuild the Economy

Japan is in a government-financial problem: the government tax revenue is less than the expenditure and issues a lot of bonds to meet the deficit. Japan is in a serious debt. How to solve it?

Just only three ways to have in mind:
(1) raise the tax
(2) cut the spending
(3) boost the economy as a whole

Should try all of these? Should try two of the above? Should try one of the three? Say, if you boost up the economy and raise the tax at the same time, you should spend less and the whole economy goes bad and the tax revenue decreases. So should the economy do if you cut the spending and boost the economy. We seem to have such a trilemma.

Regarding this old and new problem, Alberto Alesina of Harvard University and Roberto Perotti of IGIER might have the hint:

fiscal adjustments

(1) which rely primarily on spending cuts and cuts in government wage bill have a better chance of being successful and expansionary.

(2) which rely primarily on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend not to last and are contractionary.

The above research is empirically derived not theoretically, but (which I think Kan's advisors know) Prime Minister Kan has to know this because he tries the latter to increase the consumption tax and to cut the public spending. Pls don't miss the coming social experiment!

On Growth Strategies

Takeo Hoshi of UC San Diego and Anil Kashyap of the University of Chicago give some remedies for the stagnating Japanese economy:

They say what cause the stagnation are (1) the aging of the workforce, (2) the natural limits to export-led growth, (3) the tolerance of a dysfunctional banking system that supports 'zombie firms', (4) bad fiscal and monetary policy.

They say the policies are needed to improve growth and to raise productivity.

They recommend the following policies:
(1) accepting high-skilled foreign workers to increase the labor force,
(2) promoting more research collaboration between universities, companies and government to help technological progress
(3) enhancing free trade areas to help the industries raise productivity
(4) eliminating the regulatory separation of kindergartens and nursery schools to improve child care services and to encourage more talented people.

These suggestions are very interesting, but these have been already accepted and tried(not enough now, but gradually) by some policymakers. I think these might work if more people vote for them and believe these will help the Japanese economy revive.
The resource: 26/01/2011, WSJ

How To Read the Income Data

The elasticity of son's income with respect to father's income is about 0.5 in the United States.

Regarding this study, Mankiw says that that 0.5 estimate is roughly the correlation between father and son income, ...and that the fraction of variance of son's income explained by father's income (R-squared) is only 0.25 and is called the "heritability" of a characteristic.

...some of the heritability of income must come not from inequality of opportunity but from the genetic transmission of talent. ...it would be shocking if we did not find some significant heritability of income. And that would be true even if equality of opportunity were perfect.

Needless to say, this low income mobility observed in the United States should be (1) the result of the tax system(Americans face lower tax rate than do Europeans) and, in my conjecture, should have been (2) an Americans' motivation to get ahead and, what's more, one of the causes of the dynamism of the American society: people work harder if they can get rewarded larger and longer. If they know they should pay more tax as they earn more, they are less likely to work harder from the outset and thus are more likely to earn at least no more than they used to earn.

I am not sure whether the above data can tell us about the heritability of character or talent(it is clear that we should research more on it to make it sure), and its resource research says nothing about the difference of race, the places where they live, career and education.

At any rate, we should be careful of the income data that we can get from some academic or official researches when we talk about the recent income gap observed in several developed countries.

How To Cut the Deficit

I like Mankiw because he thinks up an interesting (ironic) analogy when he talks about difficult economic issues;

Plan to reduce the budget deficit: the federal government writes me(=health care) a check for $1 billion and increases the tax(=for fiscal sustainability) by $3 billion. This means that giving me that $1 billion will reduce the budget deficit by $2 billion.

This is not about the fiscal problem that America has, but that Japan has:

Plan to reduce the budget deficit: the federal government writes me(=child care) a check for 1 billion￥ and increases the consumption tax(=for fiscal sustainability) by 3 billion￥.

How to Tackle Your Exam

Science 14 January 2011: Vol. 331 no. 6014 pp. 211-213
DOI: 10.1126/science.1199427

Writing About Testing Worries Boosts Exam Performance in the Classroom
Gerardo Ramirez and Sian L. Beilock*

Simply writing about one’s worries before a high-stakes exam can boost test scores.

Anti-Consumptionism!?

Many young Japanese has not bought goods and service recently: they cut the spending on the fashion and food, don't buy a car, don't go on a trip, and try to save money. They are about to play a big and new role in the goods market in Japan.

Last year a book titled A Study on the Generation of Anti-Consumptionism (this title is translated by Taro and this book is published from Toyokeizai and only in Japanese), and subtitled "Stupid to buy a car, isn't it?" was released and went through several printings.

Anti-consumptionists are the young people of late 20s, and they were born after the bubble economy in late 1980s burst. They have generally a trend toward or taste for less consumption even though they have regular earnings. Interestingly, some of them are low paid part-timers and others have a regular job or full-time job and thus stable earnings.

They consume much less than older generations expect: they don't go to karaoke(to enjoy singing in a room with friends) and a restaurant without coupon, prefer eating at home to eating out and don't like a drink that is harmful to their health.

I found the article on almost the same topic and it said that some of the young people have become"grass-eating men" who prefer clothes and cosmetics to cars, and avoid life in the fast lane. (The Economist, November 20th-26th 2010, special report) So they can also tend to be "grass-eaters", but the men named grass-eaters are generally the ones who don't like making or having girlfriends.

The reason they consume less is, the article says, as follows: when they were teens, they went through the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, the subway attack in 1995, the bully in the schools and suicide, the Big Bang in Japan(the reform of financial and banking system) . Especially, they were damaged by the bully in the schools and were forced to be inconspicuous, to read the atmosphere in the schools and to make a shallow friendship with each other.

They tend to fear being made fun of and really want to look smart, which promotes buoyancy and rivalry among them, and thus makes them want to look carefully at others' face and to look nice: Such a common generational experience brings about a common generational mentality, which makes them worry about their future and thus consume less.

The above sounds reasonable, but it seems to me that it doesn't tell what makes them consume less, or what makes them worry about their future. I think there's more an economic cause behind this than a sociologistical or philosophical one.

Many business people are worried about such anti-consumptionists because they consume less and give a negative impact on the economy as a whole; They are more likely to shrink the dampening Japanese economy. However, they are reported to be attracted by the people from abroad and may turn out to be a new Japanese generation who pursues a new and different lifestyle from that of the older generations, as some optimists say.

In my view, a new generation gives a new lifestyle, and changes the structure of preference and thus of demand in the economy, say, in which they change a demand for a peaceful music to a fancy car and TV set.

But in the short term, anti-consumptionism should decrease the aggregate demand of the Japanese economy. Today's newspaper said that almost half of the child benefit offered first by the government this year goes to saving for their children. The child benefit doesn't make them save, but spend more on their children. They save more and consume less, which leads to more depressed economy which forces people to save even more and consume even less. It is called "the paradox of thrift".

Anti-consumptionism may be another or a new version of thrifty lifestyle.

We should need the policy to boost up the economic activity and to stimulate the people's spending in a weakened economy. Anyway, no wonder the Japanese economy will not soon recover from this slump. (Source: Diamond online, 08/12/2010)

Mobile phone in Chaplin's Circus (1928) ?

Many people have been surprised at the scene. I don't think she had a cell phone to make a call.

On Marrying Self

(Reuters Life! 22/10/2010) - Chen Wei-yih will marry herself. Uninspired by the men she's met but facing social pressure to get married, the 30-year-old Taipei office worker will hold the reception next month in honor of just one person.

"Age thirty is a prime period for me. My work and experience are in good shape, but I haven't found a partner, so what can I do?" Chen said. "It's not that I'm anti-marriage. I just hope that I can express a different idea within the bounds of a tradition."

Taiwanese women are marrying later and less often as their economic status advances, fuelling government concerns about a drop in the birth rate and its impact on productivity.

Only 40 percent of women surveyed earlier this year by the education ministry said they imagined married people could live better than singles, local media said.

But as Chen cannot officially register a marriage to herself, if she finds a man later she will wed again."If I had a steady boyfriend, I wouldn't do this," Chen said. "it would be offensive to him, anyway."

When I read the above post, it was so interesting and I was a little surprised that we could marry ourselves: I didn't have such an idea!

Some people who firmly trust tradition may say that this is not called a wedding and marriage and that she just wanted to attract public attention; Some of them may feel bad about or resist it. Marriage should come true when men and women love and agree with each other on it; Marriage is a social union or legal contract between people that creates kinship.

However, recently it has not been unusual for some men/women to get married with some other men/women and it is called the same-sex marriage. I do not say that it is good or not and I have no idea about it, but I know that some people may feel bad about it and that it is open to dispute. Self marriage might also catch public attention and new discussion.

By the way, when I studied economics, my professor said that getting married is just like finding a job. Now I see. Before getting married, we have to find a good partner; We can't marry a bad partner. It's almost the same in finding a good job: we can't work for a bad company all day long.

In my opinion, if the self marriage is a good/the best choice of life for you and it doesn't violate others' interest, health and property, I believe you can do it without any other restriction /obstruction. I don't understand those who want to marry themselves though(we can't have a good night without a good partner!), but if they are satisfied and they don't disturb others' lives, I have no reason or I can't find any reason for disagreement on it. Do whatever they want and be happy!

Nobel Prize 2010

I hope the Nobel prize of economics will go to Nobuhiro Kiyotaki of Princeton as the first Japanese Nobel winner.

Facebook Unfriending

I saw an interesting post in the newspaper. One grad student found some reasons for Facebook unfriending.

Facebook is, as you know, a worldwide social online networking where friends meet to share photos, news and gossip .

The word 'unfriend' came from Facebook and it is defined as “to remove someone as a 'friend' from a social networking site such as Facebook.”

The reasons for Facebook unfriending are as follows:

No.1: frequent, unimportant posts.

No2: posting about polarizing topics like religion and politics.

Moreover, the research found that those making friend requests stood a much higher chance of being abruptly unfriended and that at the same time, those doing the unfriending seemed to hold the upper hand in the relationship.

I think this may be something helpful for some other research on how to keep better relationship between, say, employees and employers in the labor market, men and women in the marriage market, and so on.

At any rate, Facebook itself is UNIMPORTANT. People just enjoy unimportant posts, don't they? They just break boring time. I believe in our life we sometimes need unimportant things as well as important things.