Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Schools Help Us?
Now is the season of graduation in the United States. Many students graduate from school with different minds.The education that we are now receiving is a "signal": education helps us send a message that we are competent.
Generally economists point out that education has two effects on us:
(1) Human Capital (G. Becker)
Education improves our ability and competence.
Expenditures on education, training, medical care, and so on as investments in human capital. Many studies have shown that high school and college education in the United States greatly raise a person's income, according to Becker.
(2)Signaling (M. Spence)
Education shows our ability and competence, but doesn't necessarily improve our skill. Some economists say that education has a "sheepskin effect" on us. A sheepskin stands for a diploma that we can get when we graduate from school.
Certainly, graduates from Harvard looks smarter than those from public high school. "Looking smart or competent" is quite important when we look for a job or have a job interview.
The question at hand is: is the effect of education on us always positive?
I don't think so because we have to lose much precious time during our study at school. If we used our time at school to do a job, we could make money. However, if we used our time to study at school, we couldn't make money but could learn what we want to(or have to) study.
At this point, the question is which is better for you, to study at school or to have a job.
In developing countries, many young people go to work and many of them want to study at school to improve their skill and their living standard in the future.
In contrast, in developed countries, most of young generation go to school and many of them may dislike studying and suffer from heavy stresses and strains of exams.
In Japan around half of the high school graduates go to university and study for 4 years and get a bachelor degree. However, many of undergraduate students start to look for a job in their third grade and they don't (or can't) have time to study at university.
Some professors say that it's ridiculous for their students to look for a job because they should study at university for 4 years but in fact they study only for 3 years. 1 year is the term for looking for a job.
For them, 4-year undergraduate study seems to be not good and too long to study. It should be a negative effect on them to study for 4 years. For them school might not help. They think that they should have a time to look for a job and look at a real business life and society.
Schools don't always help us. However, if you really want your school to help you with your future career, you might have to make use of what you have learned at school and to try to seize on something important for you in your everyday life. I always say to myself.
If you don't think that your class at school is helpful, you should skip it and take another class to improve your ability. Whether schools help us or not might depend on how we use our time.
Above 2 theories don't tell about it, but at any rate whether our school help us or not should be up to us. We cannot get something important for our life if we don't try to seize on a chance of good study at school.
(Reference)
(1) Akerlof, G.(1970), "The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and Market Mechanism", Q.J.E.
(3) Becker, G.(1993), "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education" The University of Chicago Press
*The above picture is from UW-Milwaukee.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
痴漢対策は政策的課題
痴漢などの性犯罪を繰り返す、風俗通いがやめられない。
そんな「性依存症」に悩む人たちを治療の対象ととらえる考え方が少しずつ広がり始めている。ただ、こうした考え方に対する理解度はまだ低く、継続的な支援を行う医療機関なども少ない。
Aさん（男性、20歳代） 小学校時代から女子児童のスカートの中をのぞくようになった。中学生になると電車内で痴漢を繰り返し、逮捕された。その後、保護観察中に再犯して少年院に入所。出所後も痴漢行為をやめられず、再び逮捕された。現在は治療の一環として、医療機関が実施するグループミーティングに通っている。
Bさん（男性、40歳代） 20歳代からストーキングや痴漢、のぞきでこれまで何度か逮捕された。公務員として勤務。親の紹介で結婚し、子供も生まれたが、30歳代の時に逮捕されたのをきっかけに離婚した。40歳代で強制わいせつ事件を起こして服役。出所後も事件を起こし、再び実刑判決を受けた。現在は、働きながら医療機関を受診し、治療を受けている。
東京都豊島区の榎本クリニックが実施するグループミーティングには週2回、10人ほどの男性がやって来る。痴漢やのぞき、性器の露出を繰り返すなど、性依存症に悩む人たちだ。年齢は10歳代から60歳代までと幅広い。学歴も職業もさまざまだ。
AさんやBさんのように、参加者の7割近くに性犯罪による逮捕歴がある。ミーティングでは、これまでの自分の体験を話し、生まれ育った家庭や対人関係などの悩み、性嗜好（しこう）などを告白し合う。同クリニックの精神保健福祉部課長の斉藤章佳氏（精神保健福祉士、社会福祉士）は、「こうした取り組みを通じて参加者同士の結束力が生まれれば、他のメンバーも頑張っているのだから自分も性衝動に負けたくないという気持ちが生まれる。やがては犯罪行為に対する抑止力を身に付けることができる」と話す。
打ち明けにくい内容を正直に言語化することで、気持ちが楽になると斉藤氏はみている。 同クリニックでは、こうした集団精神療法のほか、カウンセリングや薬物療法も実施している。ただ、アルコール依存症や性依存症は、回復することはあっても完治することはないといわれている。根気強く治療を続けるのが基本だ。
斉藤氏は、性依存症の概念を犯罪性の有無によって大別する。前者では痴漢やレイプ、小児性愛、セクハラ、のぞき、盗撮、売買春などの問題行為を繰り返す。後者では強迫的なマスターベーションや風俗店通い、不特定多数の相手との性行為がやめられないなどのケースがある。
「いずれの場合も、その行為によって社会的・身体的損失があるにもかかわらず、繰り返したり、自身のコントロールを失ってしまったりして、やめることができない」 斉藤氏は「性依存症は必ずしも性欲過多な男性がなるものではない」と言う。アルコールやギャンブルなどへの依存と同様、誰もが抱え得る対人関係の問題が根底にあるとみている。
横浜市で性依存専門外来を開設する大石クリニックの大石雅之院長は、「もともと持っている性質に原因があるのか、生い立ちや生活環境に原因があるのかを断定するのは、現時点では難しい」と話す。
言い換えると、こうした状況に陥る可能性が自分にないとは誰にも断言できないということだ。近年のアダルトサイトや出会い系サイトのまん延が、性に依存する人を生み出していると指摘する声もある。しかし、性依存症の人が国内にどれだけいるのかを示す統計的なデータはない。
…米国やカナダでは、性依存症の治療法に関する研究が1970年代ごろから積極的に進められている。日本国内でも少しずつ広がりつつあるが、現時点では性依存症を「病気」と位置付ける意識は低く、この問題は興味本位で語られることが多い。
斉藤氏は「性依存症の治療を行っていることが伝われば、地域住民による反対運動も起きかねない。地域の中で患者が問題を起こせば、管理責任が問われる可能性もある」と指摘する。医療機関サイドからすれば、周囲の理解が得られない中でこの問題に真剣に取り組むには、それなりのリスクを覚悟しなければならない。こうしたことが、医療機関による対応の足かせになっている可能性もある。 実際、性依存症者を継続的に支援する医療機関や施設は全国的にもまだ少ない。このため、性依存症の問題が表面化しても、適切な治療を受けられないケースがある。コントロールを失った性依存症者の問題行為による被害を最小限に食い止めるための対策も求められている。 大石院長は「性依存者を初犯の段階でピックアップして、すぐに治療を開始できる仕組みが整備されれば、その後の問題行為をかなり防げるのではないか」と指摘している。livedoor news
この問題についての理解はかなり低いといえるのではないか？感情論や偏ったフィミニズム論を援用して語られることが多いが、痴漢とその被害、性依存症の実態をまず把握し、政策的な対策が急務である。
痴漢は犯罪。被害者も不幸であり、加害者とその家族も同じく不幸である。できるだけ不幸を緩和し幸福度を上げるのが、これからの公共政策に与えられた大きな課題である。その観点からも、この対策に税金を投じることには大きな意味がある。
しかし、痴漢をした人はまた痴漢に走る。タバコや大酒がやめられないという問題と少し似ているかもしれない。
いわゆる「中毒財」の問題である。阪大の池田新介教授がこの問題に明るいが、痴漢行動も中毒財への選考行動とよく似た構造を持っているかもしれない。
とすると、経済学的な観点から痴漢行動が分析でき、何らかの政策的な含意が得られるかもしれない。
とにかく喫急の課題である。
そんな「性依存症」に悩む人たちを治療の対象ととらえる考え方が少しずつ広がり始めている。ただ、こうした考え方に対する理解度はまだ低く、継続的な支援を行う医療機関なども少ない。
Aさん（男性、20歳代） 小学校時代から女子児童のスカートの中をのぞくようになった。中学生になると電車内で痴漢を繰り返し、逮捕された。その後、保護観察中に再犯して少年院に入所。出所後も痴漢行為をやめられず、再び逮捕された。現在は治療の一環として、医療機関が実施するグループミーティングに通っている。
Bさん（男性、40歳代） 20歳代からストーキングや痴漢、のぞきでこれまで何度か逮捕された。公務員として勤務。親の紹介で結婚し、子供も生まれたが、30歳代の時に逮捕されたのをきっかけに離婚した。40歳代で強制わいせつ事件を起こして服役。出所後も事件を起こし、再び実刑判決を受けた。現在は、働きながら医療機関を受診し、治療を受けている。
東京都豊島区の榎本クリニックが実施するグループミーティングには週2回、10人ほどの男性がやって来る。痴漢やのぞき、性器の露出を繰り返すなど、性依存症に悩む人たちだ。年齢は10歳代から60歳代までと幅広い。学歴も職業もさまざまだ。
AさんやBさんのように、参加者の7割近くに性犯罪による逮捕歴がある。ミーティングでは、これまでの自分の体験を話し、生まれ育った家庭や対人関係などの悩み、性嗜好（しこう）などを告白し合う。同クリニックの精神保健福祉部課長の斉藤章佳氏（精神保健福祉士、社会福祉士）は、「こうした取り組みを通じて参加者同士の結束力が生まれれば、他のメンバーも頑張っているのだから自分も性衝動に負けたくないという気持ちが生まれる。やがては犯罪行為に対する抑止力を身に付けることができる」と話す。
打ち明けにくい内容を正直に言語化することで、気持ちが楽になると斉藤氏はみている。 同クリニックでは、こうした集団精神療法のほか、カウンセリングや薬物療法も実施している。ただ、アルコール依存症や性依存症は、回復することはあっても完治することはないといわれている。根気強く治療を続けるのが基本だ。
斉藤氏は、性依存症の概念を犯罪性の有無によって大別する。前者では痴漢やレイプ、小児性愛、セクハラ、のぞき、盗撮、売買春などの問題行為を繰り返す。後者では強迫的なマスターベーションや風俗店通い、不特定多数の相手との性行為がやめられないなどのケースがある。
「いずれの場合も、その行為によって社会的・身体的損失があるにもかかわらず、繰り返したり、自身のコントロールを失ってしまったりして、やめることができない」 斉藤氏は「性依存症は必ずしも性欲過多な男性がなるものではない」と言う。アルコールやギャンブルなどへの依存と同様、誰もが抱え得る対人関係の問題が根底にあるとみている。
横浜市で性依存専門外来を開設する大石クリニックの大石雅之院長は、「もともと持っている性質に原因があるのか、生い立ちや生活環境に原因があるのかを断定するのは、現時点では難しい」と話す。
言い換えると、こうした状況に陥る可能性が自分にないとは誰にも断言できないということだ。近年のアダルトサイトや出会い系サイトのまん延が、性に依存する人を生み出していると指摘する声もある。しかし、性依存症の人が国内にどれだけいるのかを示す統計的なデータはない。
…米国やカナダでは、性依存症の治療法に関する研究が1970年代ごろから積極的に進められている。日本国内でも少しずつ広がりつつあるが、現時点では性依存症を「病気」と位置付ける意識は低く、この問題は興味本位で語られることが多い。
斉藤氏は「性依存症の治療を行っていることが伝われば、地域住民による反対運動も起きかねない。地域の中で患者が問題を起こせば、管理責任が問われる可能性もある」と指摘する。医療機関サイドからすれば、周囲の理解が得られない中でこの問題に真剣に取り組むには、それなりのリスクを覚悟しなければならない。こうしたことが、医療機関による対応の足かせになっている可能性もある。 実際、性依存症者を継続的に支援する医療機関や施設は全国的にもまだ少ない。このため、性依存症の問題が表面化しても、適切な治療を受けられないケースがある。コントロールを失った性依存症者の問題行為による被害を最小限に食い止めるための対策も求められている。 大石院長は「性依存者を初犯の段階でピックアップして、すぐに治療を開始できる仕組みが整備されれば、その後の問題行為をかなり防げるのではないか」と指摘している。livedoor news
この問題についての理解はかなり低いといえるのではないか？感情論や偏ったフィミニズム論を援用して語られることが多いが、痴漢とその被害、性依存症の実態をまず把握し、政策的な対策が急務である。
痴漢は犯罪。被害者も不幸であり、加害者とその家族も同じく不幸である。できるだけ不幸を緩和し幸福度を上げるのが、これからの公共政策に与えられた大きな課題である。その観点からも、この対策に税金を投じることには大きな意味がある。
しかし、痴漢をした人はまた痴漢に走る。タバコや大酒がやめられないという問題と少し似ているかもしれない。
いわゆる「中毒財」の問題である。阪大の池田新介教授がこの問題に明るいが、痴漢行動も中毒財への選考行動とよく似た構造を持っているかもしれない。
とすると、経済学的な観点から痴漢行動が分析でき、何らかの政策的な含意が得られるかもしれない。
とにかく喫急の課題である。
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Men Are Overconfident!?
Fumio Otake of Osaka University (labor economics) contributed a nice article to a major newspaper in Japan:
Have you ever heard of the term glass ceiling?
It refers to situations where the advancement of a qualified person within the hierarchy of an organization is stopped at a lower level because of some form of discrimination (sex or race, deaf, blind, disabled, aged and so on). It is distinguished from formal barriers to advancement, such as education or experience requirements.
Recently the fraction of women in the middle management in companies has been increasing but is still relatively small to that of men. Moreover, there's a wage gap between men and women. Why not? That's what many labor-economists are interested in.
Generally, there must be 3 possible reasons for it:
(1) Top managers dislike women.
It is a kind of preference or discrimination against women. However, rational firms try to hire more competent and productive workers in competitive market. If a woman were more competent than a man, they would try to hire the former and pay higher wage. So if there were such discrimination against women in some firms, the competition they face should not be hard.
Some researchers find that the firms which hire more women are making more money than those which don't in Japan.
(2) Managers hire more men because men are more likely to continue working.
It is, what is called, "statistical discrimination" . The idea is that firms want to hire people who continue to work but they don't know who are more likely to continue. (Firms don't know the types of workers, workers who continue to work or not)
Firms give workers many kinds of job-training and they want to get higher return from such "human investment". So they want to hire people who continue working. They try to find the type from their experience and know that men are more likely to continue to work than women.
And thus women become less competent than men in the business society because firms are less willing to invest women.
This is a statistical discrimination. It's a kind of signaling game, where the informed party is workers and the uninformed party is firms. Woman must be a signaling to firms as "not working long".
(3) Men are more overconfident than women.
Sounds interesting! According to the research conducted by Uri Gneezy of UC-San Diego and other economists, women may be less effective than men in competitive environments, even if they are able to perform similarly in noncompetitive environments.(1)
In a laboratory experiment they observe, as they increase the competitiveness of the environment, a significant increase in performance for men, but not for women. This results in a significant gender gap in performance in tournaments, while there is no gap when participants are paid according to piece rate.
They also find out that the competition enhances the performance of males, but not females in a race of young children.(2)
Some researchers find out that men like competition better than women and men are more overconfident than women.
The question is that it is due to genetic or cultural effects. Which do you think is more reasonable?
The research conducted by Gneezy etc. uses a controlled experiment to explore whether there are gender differences in selecting into competitive environments across two distinct societies: the Maasai in Tanzania and the Khasi in India.
One unique aspect of these societies is that the Maasai represent a textbook example of a patriarchal society whereas the Khasi are matrilineal.
Similar to the extant evidence drawn from experiments executed in Western cultures, Maasai men opt to compete at roughly twice the rate as Maasai women. Interestingly, this result is reversed amongst the Khasi, where women choose the competitive environment more often than Khasi men, and even choose to compete weakly more often than Maasai men.
They view these results as potentially providing insights into the underpinnings of the factors hypothesized to be determinants of the observed gender differences in selecting into competitive environments.
In their guess, men's preference for competition should be due to cultural reason.
As Prof. Otake said, cultural matters might be possibly closely related to gap of economic performance.
(References)
(1)Gneezy, U., M. Niederle, and A. Rustichini “Performance in competitive environments: Gender differences,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2003, p. 1049-1074.
(2)Gneezy, U., and A. Rustichini “Gender and competition at a young age,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2004, 377-381.
(3)Uri Gneezy, Kenneth L. Leonard, John A. List,Gender Differences in Competition: Evidence from a Matrilineal and a Patriarchal Society, NBER Working Paper No. 13727, 2008
Have you ever heard of the term glass ceiling?
It refers to situations where the advancement of a qualified person within the hierarchy of an organization is stopped at a lower level because of some form of discrimination (sex or race, deaf, blind, disabled, aged and so on). It is distinguished from formal barriers to advancement, such as education or experience requirements.
Recently the fraction of women in the middle management in companies has been increasing but is still relatively small to that of men. Moreover, there's a wage gap between men and women. Why not? That's what many labor-economists are interested in.
Generally, there must be 3 possible reasons for it:
(1) Top managers dislike women.
It is a kind of preference or discrimination against women. However, rational firms try to hire more competent and productive workers in competitive market. If a woman were more competent than a man, they would try to hire the former and pay higher wage. So if there were such discrimination against women in some firms, the competition they face should not be hard.
Some researchers find that the firms which hire more women are making more money than those which don't in Japan.
(2) Managers hire more men because men are more likely to continue working.
It is, what is called, "statistical discrimination" . The idea is that firms want to hire people who continue to work but they don't know who are more likely to continue. (Firms don't know the types of workers, workers who continue to work or not)
Firms give workers many kinds of job-training and they want to get higher return from such "human investment". So they want to hire people who continue working. They try to find the type from their experience and know that men are more likely to continue to work than women.
And thus women become less competent than men in the business society because firms are less willing to invest women.
This is a statistical discrimination. It's a kind of signaling game, where the informed party is workers and the uninformed party is firms. Woman must be a signaling to firms as "not working long".
(3) Men are more overconfident than women.
Sounds interesting! According to the research conducted by Uri Gneezy of UC-San Diego and other economists, women may be less effective than men in competitive environments, even if they are able to perform similarly in noncompetitive environments.(1)
In a laboratory experiment they observe, as they increase the competitiveness of the environment, a significant increase in performance for men, but not for women. This results in a significant gender gap in performance in tournaments, while there is no gap when participants are paid according to piece rate.
They also find out that the competition enhances the performance of males, but not females in a race of young children.(2)
Some researchers find out that men like competition better than women and men are more overconfident than women.
The question is that it is due to genetic or cultural effects. Which do you think is more reasonable?
The research conducted by Gneezy etc. uses a controlled experiment to explore whether there are gender differences in selecting into competitive environments across two distinct societies: the Maasai in Tanzania and the Khasi in India.
One unique aspect of these societies is that the Maasai represent a textbook example of a patriarchal society whereas the Khasi are matrilineal.
Similar to the extant evidence drawn from experiments executed in Western cultures, Maasai men opt to compete at roughly twice the rate as Maasai women. Interestingly, this result is reversed amongst the Khasi, where women choose the competitive environment more often than Khasi men, and even choose to compete weakly more often than Maasai men.
They view these results as potentially providing insights into the underpinnings of the factors hypothesized to be determinants of the observed gender differences in selecting into competitive environments.
In their guess, men's preference for competition should be due to cultural reason.
As Prof. Otake said, cultural matters might be possibly closely related to gap of economic performance.
(References)
(1)Gneezy, U., M. Niederle, and A. Rustichini “Performance in competitive environments: Gender differences,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2003, p. 1049-1074.
(2)Gneezy, U., and A. Rustichini “Gender and competition at a young age,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2004, 377-381.
(3)Uri Gneezy, Kenneth L. Leonard, John A. List,Gender Differences in Competition: Evidence from a Matrilineal and a Patriarchal Society, NBER Working Paper No. 13727, 2008
Monday, May 05, 2008
MISIA
I am into her. Misia has been singing for 10 years. She is a famous Japanese singer songwriter. I like her songs. Her songs are soft but strong, which always cheers me up.
Photo: Rhythmedia inc.
Tomatoberry
It looks a strawberry, but tastes a tomato. It is strange but (and so) became popular in Japan.Photo: 5月4日15時0分配信 時事通信
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Smokers Are Unhappy?
Smokers are unhappy. Is that true? Osaka University figures out how happy smokers are by asking them if they are happy: the more they smoke a day, the less happier they are.
Heavy drinkers and gamblers are also less happier than non-heavy drinkers and gamblers. Smokers are more likely to drink and gamble, and moreover smokers and gamblers are more likely to eat out and to have much debt.
Why are they smoke, drink and gamble much although they know these habits are not good for their health?
More impatient and less risk-hating people are more likely to smoke, drink and gamble, but more importantly, smokers who have enjoyed smoking for a longer time are more likely to smoke more. It is not easy for them to quit smoking.
People who have much income and are happier are more patient and people who are not happy are less patient.
If people have an unhappy event, they become less patient and begin to smoke, drink and eat too much. Moreover, once they come to smoke, drink and eat too much, this makes them unhappier and less patient, and then they come to smoke, drink and eat further and further.
How can we help them stop such bad habits? One good idea is to increase a tax on cigarette. By doing it, we can help them become healthier and happier.
Jonathan Gruber of MIT shows that increasing an excise tax on cigarette can also increase the happiness of smokers. Taxing cigarette and alcohol can be helpful to improve their happiness.
Heavy drinkers and gamblers are also less happier than non-heavy drinkers and gamblers. Smokers are more likely to drink and gamble, and moreover smokers and gamblers are more likely to eat out and to have much debt.
Why are they smoke, drink and gamble much although they know these habits are not good for their health?
More impatient and less risk-hating people are more likely to smoke, drink and gamble, but more importantly, smokers who have enjoyed smoking for a longer time are more likely to smoke more. It is not easy for them to quit smoking.
People who have much income and are happier are more patient and people who are not happy are less patient.
If people have an unhappy event, they become less patient and begin to smoke, drink and eat too much. Moreover, once they come to smoke, drink and eat too much, this makes them unhappier and less patient, and then they come to smoke, drink and eat further and further.
How can we help them stop such bad habits? One good idea is to increase a tax on cigarette. By doing it, we can help them become healthier and happier.
Jonathan Gruber of MIT shows that increasing an excise tax on cigarette can also increase the happiness of smokers. Taxing cigarette and alcohol can be helpful to improve their happiness.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Sunspot and Animal Spirit
05/05/08 revised
(Case Study)
Japan had a big recession for 10 years. Many people were unemployed and had to look for a job.
Recession is so strange: many people can’t live a good life even though they are in well developed society. Price goes down, but simultaneously income goes down. Generally, price goes down more slowly than income. So many people have a hardship in their life.
Recession can always occur in developed countries, because there are a lot of goods there and also people are rich already. If people do not want to buy goods any more for some reason, salespeople cannot sell goods even at lower price, they cannot get income and thus they cannot buy any more. And then, price goes down, income goes down,... It is, what is called, a deflationary spiral.
By the way, why people don’t want to buy goods any more? People feel nervous about buying goods. Why people are so nervous? It’s a psychological matter. Nobody knows. It depends on the situation that people are having. It can be explained by the "sunspot theory".
"Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities."
(The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 161-162)
If you are a graduate student and have taken macroeconomics 1&2 and learned dynamic programming already, you should know about what the sunspot theory is.
(Downloaded from Roger E. A. Farmer)
Note that the sunspot theory doesn't look like the idea of the Neoclassical (King-Plosser type) RBC model or the Keynesian (Kiyotaki-Blanchard type) imperfect competitive models.
The point is that the equilibrium is self-fulfilled. The path to the equilibrium is undetermined and moreover the multiple paths can happen. Nobody knows what equilibrium will happen.
Some economists really support this theory. It seems to me that it describes well the real economy. What do you think of it? Especially if you like RBC, what do you think of this theory?
Let me listen to your idea.
(Case Study)
Japan had a big recession for 10 years. Many people were unemployed and had to look for a job.
Recession is so strange: many people can’t live a good life even though they are in well developed society. Price goes down, but simultaneously income goes down. Generally, price goes down more slowly than income. So many people have a hardship in their life.
Recession can always occur in developed countries, because there are a lot of goods there and also people are rich already. If people do not want to buy goods any more for some reason, salespeople cannot sell goods even at lower price, they cannot get income and thus they cannot buy any more. And then, price goes down, income goes down,... It is, what is called, a deflationary spiral.
By the way, why people don’t want to buy goods any more? People feel nervous about buying goods. Why people are so nervous? It’s a psychological matter. Nobody knows. It depends on the situation that people are having. It can be explained by the "sunspot theory".
"Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities."
(The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 161-162)
If you are a graduate student and have taken macroeconomics 1&2 and learned dynamic programming already, you should know about what the sunspot theory is.
(Downloaded from Roger E. A. Farmer)
Note that the sunspot theory doesn't look like the idea of the Neoclassical (King-Plosser type) RBC model or the Keynesian (Kiyotaki-Blanchard type) imperfect competitive models.
The point is that the equilibrium is self-fulfilled. The path to the equilibrium is undetermined and moreover the multiple paths can happen. Nobody knows what equilibrium will happen.
Some economists really support this theory. It seems to me that it describes well the real economy. What do you think of it? Especially if you like RBC, what do you think of this theory?
Let me listen to your idea.
休みたいなら辞めろ
連合（日本労働組合総連合会）の高木剛会長は2008年4月26日、東京都内で開かれたメーデー中央大会で、「休みたいなら辞めればよい」と発言したとされる日本電産の永守重信社長を強く批判した。
…
永守社長は4月23日の記者会見で
「社員全員が休日返上で働く企業だから成長できるし給料も上がる。たっぷり休んで、結果的に会社が傾いて人員整理するのでは意味がない」
と発言したと報道され、論議を呼んだ。この「経営最優先」の発言については、高木会長も労働団体のトップとして黙っていられなかったようだ。
高木会長は、「仕事と生活の両立」を指す「ワーク・ライフ・バランス」の必要性を強調する中で、反面教師として日本電産社長の発言に言及。「休みたければ辞めればいい」発言については「この会社の時間外・休日労働の実態を調べてみたい」とした上で、「休日返上で働くから成長できる」との発言に対しては
「まさに言語道断。労働基準法という法律があることを、また、労働基準法が雇用主に何を求めていると思っているのか、どのように認識されているのか。ぜひ問いただしてみないといけない、そんな怒りの思いを持って、この日本電産のニュースを聞いたところであります」
と憤りをあらわにした。 これに対して舛添厚労相は、直後の来賓あいさつで
「労働関係法令はきちんと遵守してもらわないといけない。きちんと調査し、指導すべきは指導し、法律にもとるものがあれば厳正に処分する」
と応じた。
つねに経営者と企業家との対立は労使交渉の上では当然であり、小生はどちらの側にもつかない。ただ、経営者としては会社の業績を上げないといけないので、社員に懸命に働いてもらわないと困る。また、社員の側としては家族と過ごしたり、肉体的精神的疲労の回復は必要となろう。体を壊してまで働くとは、何か矛盾しているようにも思える。
ただ、今回の永守氏の発言は、永守氏らしい発言といえよう。実は小生永守氏に会ったことがある。子曰く、「サザエさんのエンディングソングを聴くのが嫌いなやつは、要らない」のだそうだ。
つまり、月曜日が来るのが嫌いなやつは来なくていい、という旨の発言であるが、これは経営者からすると、小生至極もっともに思う。
前にいた会社で働いていた頃、小生『こち亀』（サザエさんの後番組）が嫌いになった。これではダメだと思って、辞職願いをいつ書くか迷った記憶がある。何しろ、入社してまもなく辞職願いを書くとは思っても見なかったことであるから。
経営者、労働者それぞれ違う立場にいるので、大いに議論と交渉を展開すればいい。ただ、労働者が経営者の側に立ったり、逆に経営者が労働者の側に立つのはむしろ不自然だ。
連合は、ただ経営者を批判するのではなく、上がった成果をきちんと労働者に配分し、労働者の側が企業の経営に対してもっと発言、並びに参画できる機会の拡充に向けた施策を提案すべきであるといえる。
…
永守社長は4月23日の記者会見で
「社員全員が休日返上で働く企業だから成長できるし給料も上がる。たっぷり休んで、結果的に会社が傾いて人員整理するのでは意味がない」
と発言したと報道され、論議を呼んだ。この「経営最優先」の発言については、高木会長も労働団体のトップとして黙っていられなかったようだ。
高木会長は、「仕事と生活の両立」を指す「ワーク・ライフ・バランス」の必要性を強調する中で、反面教師として日本電産社長の発言に言及。「休みたければ辞めればいい」発言については「この会社の時間外・休日労働の実態を調べてみたい」とした上で、「休日返上で働くから成長できる」との発言に対しては
「まさに言語道断。労働基準法という法律があることを、また、労働基準法が雇用主に何を求めていると思っているのか、どのように認識されているのか。ぜひ問いただしてみないといけない、そんな怒りの思いを持って、この日本電産のニュースを聞いたところであります」
と憤りをあらわにした。 これに対して舛添厚労相は、直後の来賓あいさつで
「労働関係法令はきちんと遵守してもらわないといけない。きちんと調査し、指導すべきは指導し、法律にもとるものがあれば厳正に処分する」
と応じた。
4月26日20時15分配信 J-CASTニュース
つねに経営者と企業家との対立は労使交渉の上では当然であり、小生はどちらの側にもつかない。ただ、経営者としては会社の業績を上げないといけないので、社員に懸命に働いてもらわないと困る。また、社員の側としては家族と過ごしたり、肉体的精神的疲労の回復は必要となろう。体を壊してまで働くとは、何か矛盾しているようにも思える。
ただ、今回の永守氏の発言は、永守氏らしい発言といえよう。実は小生永守氏に会ったことがある。子曰く、「サザエさんのエンディングソングを聴くのが嫌いなやつは、要らない」のだそうだ。
つまり、月曜日が来るのが嫌いなやつは来なくていい、という旨の発言であるが、これは経営者からすると、小生至極もっともに思う。
前にいた会社で働いていた頃、小生『こち亀』（サザエさんの後番組）が嫌いになった。これではダメだと思って、辞職願いをいつ書くか迷った記憶がある。何しろ、入社してまもなく辞職願いを書くとは思っても見なかったことであるから。
経営者、労働者それぞれ違う立場にいるので、大いに議論と交渉を展開すればいい。ただ、労働者が経営者の側に立ったり、逆に経営者が労働者の側に立つのはむしろ不自然だ。
連合は、ただ経営者を批判するのではなく、上がった成果をきちんと労働者に配分し、労働者の側が企業の経営に対してもっと発言、並びに参画できる機会の拡充に向けた施策を提案すべきであるといえる。
Friday, April 25, 2008
日本へ向けて
04/26/08 修正
これは当初から予期していたことでもあるが、今年をもって米国を離れなければならないこととなった。
成績が思うように振るわず、英語にも問題があったために、奨学金が下りず去ることとなった。当初の目標を貫徹できなかったという意味で残念であるが、こちらの教授から「去るべきだ」という指摘を受け、気持ちはすっきりした。
しかしながら、自分が志望する経済学への関心は萎えていない。ただ、今後は「研究者」としてではなく、「実務家」として経済学を就業生活の中で磨いていきたい。
これまでを振り返るに、やはり将来に対する漠たる不安が来米当初からあり、これが成績不振への遠因になったものと考えられる。
また、評価が米国では違うことを知っていたが、それになじめなかったのも一因となろう。英語は時間をかければよくなるのかもしれないが、話す機会の少ない小生にとっては１年間の飛躍的上達は困難を極めた。 話す機会を作る努力はしたが、目的や志向の違う人たちとの社交的な会話は長く続かない。
なによりも経済学が数学を使う非常に難しい学問であることが今回の件を招いたのではなく、経済学を職として食べていくことが困難な時代になっているということを改めて実感し、このことが今回の件を招聘した。
数学については、基礎的な訓練を受け、標準的な大学院レベルの経済数学ならひととおり説明できる自信はある。しかし、何年もの長い月日をかければ、研究者やエコノミストになれるという時代はもはやなくなった。
「去らなければならない」のではなく、「去りたい」のではないか。結果論からそう認めざるを得ない。しかし同時に、実務的にしっかりとした地盤を築いていきたい、という思いもこれまでずっとあった。
人生は不安だらけ。不安があるからこそ、人は努力する。常にそう言い聞かせている。不安を楽しめ、という人生訓もこの点で成立しようが、現実的な問題を含めて、不安よりも責任を感ぜずにはいられない。米国での修士号取得を良しとして、これを励みに進歩を遂げたい。
「われ十五にして学志し、三十にして立ち、四十にして惑わず、五十にして天命を知る」といえば、三十で立てる準備をすべきなのかもしれない。
まだ迷いは晴れないでいる。しかし、人は四十にして迷わず、惑わず、己の職務を全うしたい。そのための実利的で地道な努力をしていかねばならないと感じた。これが小生の言う「責任感」である。これは、人のためではない、己のためだ。
しかし、人よりも豊かな人生を送るためには、それなりの職につかなければならない反面、自分にうそをつくような興味もないことを興味があるなどと自分に言い聞かせ続けなければならない職には就かないように努力せねばならない。
いやなこともせねばならないが、それ以上に責任感が持てる職に就きたい。
ざっと今の心境である。
このブログは引き続き、経済学ブログとして続けていく。また、英語はこれを機会に日本でも時間を見つけて練習を惜しまない。
静かなご声援のほどお頼み申したい。
これは当初から予期していたことでもあるが、今年をもって米国を離れなければならないこととなった。
成績が思うように振るわず、英語にも問題があったために、奨学金が下りず去ることとなった。当初の目標を貫徹できなかったという意味で残念であるが、こちらの教授から「去るべきだ」という指摘を受け、気持ちはすっきりした。
しかしながら、自分が志望する経済学への関心は萎えていない。ただ、今後は「研究者」としてではなく、「実務家」として経済学を就業生活の中で磨いていきたい。
これまでを振り返るに、やはり将来に対する漠たる不安が来米当初からあり、これが成績不振への遠因になったものと考えられる。
また、評価が米国では違うことを知っていたが、それになじめなかったのも一因となろう。英語は時間をかければよくなるのかもしれないが、話す機会の少ない小生にとっては１年間の飛躍的上達は困難を極めた。 話す機会を作る努力はしたが、目的や志向の違う人たちとの社交的な会話は長く続かない。
なによりも経済学が数学を使う非常に難しい学問であることが今回の件を招いたのではなく、経済学を職として食べていくことが困難な時代になっているということを改めて実感し、このことが今回の件を招聘した。
数学については、基礎的な訓練を受け、標準的な大学院レベルの経済数学ならひととおり説明できる自信はある。しかし、何年もの長い月日をかければ、研究者やエコノミストになれるという時代はもはやなくなった。
「去らなければならない」のではなく、「去りたい」のではないか。結果論からそう認めざるを得ない。しかし同時に、実務的にしっかりとした地盤を築いていきたい、という思いもこれまでずっとあった。
人生は不安だらけ。不安があるからこそ、人は努力する。常にそう言い聞かせている。不安を楽しめ、という人生訓もこの点で成立しようが、現実的な問題を含めて、不安よりも責任を感ぜずにはいられない。米国での修士号取得を良しとして、これを励みに進歩を遂げたい。
「われ十五にして学志し、三十にして立ち、四十にして惑わず、五十にして天命を知る」といえば、三十で立てる準備をすべきなのかもしれない。
まだ迷いは晴れないでいる。しかし、人は四十にして迷わず、惑わず、己の職務を全うしたい。そのための実利的で地道な努力をしていかねばならないと感じた。これが小生の言う「責任感」である。これは、人のためではない、己のためだ。
しかし、人よりも豊かな人生を送るためには、それなりの職につかなければならない反面、自分にうそをつくような興味もないことを興味があるなどと自分に言い聞かせ続けなければならない職には就かないように努力せねばならない。
いやなこともせねばならないが、それ以上に責任感が持てる職に就きたい。
ざっと今の心境である。
このブログは引き続き、経済学ブログとして続けていく。また、英語はこれを機会に日本でも時間を見つけて練習を惜しまない。
静かなご声援のほどお頼み申したい。
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Hirofumi Uzawa
Revised 9/26/2014
Hirofumi Uzawa is one of the few Japanese worldly economists, professor emeritus of Tokyo University. He originally majored in mathematics at Tokyo University, and obtained a doctorate in Mathematics.
After he became an assistant professor of the University of California, Berkeley and professor of the University of Chicago, and then professor of the Department of Economics at Tokyo University in 1969.
Uzawa initiated the field of neoclassical economic growth and general equilibrium models, though he inclined toward strictly mathematical area of economics.
Many professional economists residing in Japan can be said to have been influenced by him. I met him and Joseph Stiglitz at Doshisha University in 2003. There he talked about social common capital, which was recently of great interest to Prof Uzawa.
However, in Japan he is well known as a ruthless critic of the modern market-oriented (Lucas-Sargent-Barro type) macroeconomics. It seems to me a little strange because he had worked for modern neoclassical economics.
In the 1970s and 1980s he commenced criticizing Chicago economists, Milton Friedman, Robert E. Lucas and Gary S. Becker, for their market-oriented theories. Many of his critics were written in Japanese language and thus may not be known about outside of Japan.
One of his critics is, Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), which is now based on modern standard macroeconomic theory, is so unrealistic and unreasonable: people are not rational enough to forecast precisely the states of the future economy. In addition, people don't maximize their utility as the theory predicts when they consume goods and services. The economics based on REH is rather very harmful to policy decision and making in practice.
To be fair, his view on modern economics seems to lean toward political critique of neo liberalism spread all over the US and the world since the 1980s, of which the ideology is free market mechanism, privatization, deregulation, tax cut, cut in deficit government spending, and small public governance.
It can be true that modern economic growth theory has made progress partly due to his effort, but (or therefore) there are actually some economists in Japan who point out that economic research conducted in Japan became behind the time thanks to the influence of Prof Uzawa.
His academic impact on economics research in Japan was so great that many students of economics followed his critics; Modern economics based on REH had not been taught well since ever in economics departments in Japan. There are still many economists claiming that the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans representative-agent dynasty model is a fucking crazy economics.
On September 26, 2014, Prof Uzawa passed away. He was 86. I recalled that I learned his name at Prof. Drewianka's econ 801, the Hurwics-Uzawa demand theorem and at growth text, the Uzawa-Lucas human-capital model. He blamed Milton Friedman, his ex Chicago colleague, for his market-oriented economics, but only in this point do I disagree with Prof Uzawa. It sounds to me his jealousy to him, but it's OK. There is no doubt in his greatness as an economist. Rest in Peace.
Hirofumi Uzawa is one of the few Japanese worldly economists, professor emeritus of Tokyo University. He originally majored in mathematics at Tokyo University, and obtained a doctorate in Mathematics.
After he became an assistant professor of the University of California, Berkeley and professor of the University of Chicago, and then professor of the Department of Economics at Tokyo University in 1969.
Uzawa initiated the field of neoclassical economic growth and general equilibrium models, though he inclined toward strictly mathematical area of economics.
Many professional economists residing in Japan can be said to have been influenced by him. I met him and Joseph Stiglitz at Doshisha University in 2003. There he talked about social common capital, which was recently of great interest to Prof Uzawa.
However, in Japan he is well known as a ruthless critic of the modern market-oriented (Lucas-Sargent-Barro type) macroeconomics. It seems to me a little strange because he had worked for modern neoclassical economics.
In the 1970s and 1980s he commenced criticizing Chicago economists, Milton Friedman, Robert E. Lucas and Gary S. Becker, for their market-oriented theories. Many of his critics were written in Japanese language and thus may not be known about outside of Japan.
One of his critics is, Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), which is now based on modern standard macroeconomic theory, is so unrealistic and unreasonable: people are not rational enough to forecast precisely the states of the future economy. In addition, people don't maximize their utility as the theory predicts when they consume goods and services. The economics based on REH is rather very harmful to policy decision and making in practice.
To be fair, his view on modern economics seems to lean toward political critique of neo liberalism spread all over the US and the world since the 1980s, of which the ideology is free market mechanism, privatization, deregulation, tax cut, cut in deficit government spending, and small public governance.
It can be true that modern economic growth theory has made progress partly due to his effort, but (or therefore) there are actually some economists in Japan who point out that economic research conducted in Japan became behind the time thanks to the influence of Prof Uzawa.
His academic impact on economics research in Japan was so great that many students of economics followed his critics; Modern economics based on REH had not been taught well since ever in economics departments in Japan. There are still many economists claiming that the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans representative-agent dynasty model is a fucking crazy economics.
On September 26, 2014, Prof Uzawa passed away. He was 86. I recalled that I learned his name at Prof. Drewianka's econ 801, the Hurwics-Uzawa demand theorem and at growth text, the Uzawa-Lucas human-capital model. He blamed Milton Friedman, his ex Chicago colleague, for his market-oriented economics, but only in this point do I disagree with Prof Uzawa. It sounds to me his jealousy to him, but it's OK. There is no doubt in his greatness as an economist. Rest in Peace.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Best Macro Texts
These are 5 textbooks of macroeconomics written in English:
(1) Lectures on Macroeconomics
(2) Advanced Macroeconomics
(3) Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies
(4) Economic Growth
(5) Optimization in Economic Theory
(1), (2) and (3) are just macro texts that I use and like, but (4) and (5) are closely related to macro. The former is on economic growth and development, but it has a lot of analytical tools used in macroeconomics. The latter is on mathematical tools also used in macro, especially chap. 10 and 11 are very nice math resources of optimal control and dynamic programming(these are all deterministic versions of them, though).
However, the above texts are already well-known among students of macroeconomics. So, I would like to add one great text of macro in the list,
(6) Saito, M(2007), "New Macroeconomics" unfortunately in Japanese.
Every time I open it, I feel happy that I am a Japanese. This book should be really read well by many other students all over the world because it is not big but clear-cut.
(1) Lectures on Macroeconomics
(2) Advanced Macroeconomics
(3) Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies
(4) Economic Growth
(5) Optimization in Economic Theory
(1), (2) and (3) are just macro texts that I use and like, but (4) and (5) are closely related to macro. The former is on economic growth and development, but it has a lot of analytical tools used in macroeconomics. The latter is on mathematical tools also used in macro, especially chap. 10 and 11 are very nice math resources of optimal control and dynamic programming(these are all deterministic versions of them, though).
However, the above texts are already well-known among students of macroeconomics. So, I would like to add one great text of macro in the list,
(6) Saito, M(2007), "New Macroeconomics" unfortunately in Japanese.
Every time I open it, I feel happy that I am a Japanese. This book should be really read well by many other students all over the world because it is not big but clear-cut.
Recent Macroeconomics in Japan
Recently (especially since the 1990s) the research on macroeconomics has become popular in Japan. The reason for this seems to be behind the long-lasting recession in the 1990s in Japan, especially, the heated discussion about expansionary monetary policy to cure the deflationary economy in the 1990s, such as the zero-interest-rate policy to lead the call rate to almost zero, and inflation targeting to lead the rate of price change to a particular rate of inflation, say,2-3%.
I am not a professional macroeconomist yet, but I believe that the level of research on macroeconomics in Japan is approaching gradually that in the United States.
Unfortunately, many students of macroeconomics don't seem to know about the recent macroeconomics in Japan. Of course, in many academic journals of economics, say, JPE, QJE, Econometrica, EJ, AER and so on, there are few Japanese economists. However, some Japanese economists write good graduate-level textbooks of macroeconomics.
One of them that I like most is one written by Saito Makoto of Hitotsubashi University, "New Macroeconomics".
He was a scholar of the University of British Columbia(UBC) in Canada and a student of Blanchard, an author of still great macroeconomics textbook and professor of MIT.
Although this book has been greatly influenced by Blanchard's macro text, Lectures on Macroeconomics, it is worth reading carefully. However, it has not been translated into English yet. I think that it should be translated into English and read by many grad students studying in the United States.
Japan, as you know, is the second largest economic country and it seems quite strange that economics research in Japan is not still so common across the whole world.
One of the reasons for it may be the wall of language: many textbooks written by Japanese economists are good, but unfortunately in Japanese, and moreover the lectures of economics at universities are conducted in Japanese.
If they were all in English, the Japanese economics would be much more common in the world. They should be in English as soon as possible, I hope.
Anyway, I try to report in English later what Prof. Saito says in his text. However, needless to say, it is copyrighted and so I have to say that I must not translate it and copy it in this blog.
I always have to keep it in mind when I write something important in economics.
I am not a professional macroeconomist yet, but I believe that the level of research on macroeconomics in Japan is approaching gradually that in the United States.
Unfortunately, many students of macroeconomics don't seem to know about the recent macroeconomics in Japan. Of course, in many academic journals of economics, say, JPE, QJE, Econometrica, EJ, AER and so on, there are few Japanese economists. However, some Japanese economists write good graduate-level textbooks of macroeconomics.
One of them that I like most is one written by Saito Makoto of Hitotsubashi University, "New Macroeconomics".
He was a scholar of the University of British Columbia(UBC) in Canada and a student of Blanchard, an author of still great macroeconomics textbook and professor of MIT.
Although this book has been greatly influenced by Blanchard's macro text, Lectures on Macroeconomics, it is worth reading carefully. However, it has not been translated into English yet. I think that it should be translated into English and read by many grad students studying in the United States.
Japan, as you know, is the second largest economic country and it seems quite strange that economics research in Japan is not still so common across the whole world.
One of the reasons for it may be the wall of language: many textbooks written by Japanese economists are good, but unfortunately in Japanese, and moreover the lectures of economics at universities are conducted in Japanese.
If they were all in English, the Japanese economics would be much more common in the world. They should be in English as soon as possible, I hope.
Anyway, I try to report in English later what Prof. Saito says in his text. However, needless to say, it is copyrighted and so I have to say that I must not translate it and copy it in this blog.
I always have to keep it in mind when I write something important in economics.
Friday, April 18, 2008
効果のほどはいかほどか？
東京都は今年度から、受験生を抱える低所得者世帯を対象に、学習塾の費用を無利子で融資する制度を始める。 全国初の試みで、「親の経済力の格差が、子供の学力差に結びつかないようにしたい」としている。都福祉保健局によると、対象は中学３年生、高校３年生を抱える、年間の課税所得が６０万円以下の世帯。例えば、夫婦と子供１人の３人家族の場合、年収３２０万円以下、子供２人の４人家族の場合は、３８０万円以下が目安となる。 中３には年間１５万円、高３は２０万円まで無利子で貸し出す。また高３には、３校程度を上限に、大学受験料３万５０００円（１校あたり）を貸し出す。進学が決まれば返済を免除することも検討している。融資の申請は、今年８月までに、各区市町村に設置する予定の相談窓口で受け付ける。
4月17日8時50 読売新聞
いい試みではなかろうか？
しばらくこの政策の効果についてみたいが、公立学校の存在意義が今後改めて問われてくるいい機会ではないか。この政策と同時に、公立学校の教育充実、単に教員の増加ではなく、教員の質的向上（無能教員の解雇も含めた）をももくろんだ改革が必要となるように考えられる。
しばらく見守りたい。
4月17日8時50 読売新聞
いい試みではなかろうか？
しばらくこの政策の効果についてみたいが、公立学校の存在意義が今後改めて問われてくるいい機会ではないか。この政策と同時に、公立学校の教育充実、単に教員の増加ではなく、教員の質的向上（無能教員の解雇も含めた）をももくろんだ改革が必要となるように考えられる。
しばらく見守りたい。
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Impatience Leads to Fatness and Debt
Do you know BMI? It stands for Body Mass Index. It is derived by (weight; kg)/(height; m)^2. If your BMI is more than 25, it means that you are fat!
Impatient people get fat. Let me explain it briefly:
The first problem is why we get fat.
From the experience of the United States, lower cost of meal makes us fatter. It is one of the most important factors that make us fat.
Another factor is how patient we are. How is getting fat related to how patient we are? Here's a today's topic.
Patient people can put up with their hunger today. However, impatient people can't because they don't take serious the cost of getting fat tomorrow. They take serious the benefit from eating today and so they eat more than patient people do.
In fact, one research tells that impatient people have high BMI.
Moreover, fat people are more likely to have much debt. In other words, there's a strong correlation between fatness and debt.
Why not? Impatient people spend more today than patient people do. They cannot stand up their today's desire! Impatient people don't (want to) think about paying high interest rate later. In the same way, they don't think about paying high cost of getting fat later, either.
In sum, impatient people are fat and have much debt. There are two factors that make us fat, (1)cost of meal and (2)how patient we are. Having debt and getting fat are the problem of comparing the benefit from spending today to the cost of paying tomorrow, that is, the problem of time preference.
Impatient people get fat. Let me explain it briefly:
The first problem is why we get fat.
From the experience of the United States, lower cost of meal makes us fatter. It is one of the most important factors that make us fat.
Another factor is how patient we are. How is getting fat related to how patient we are? Here's a today's topic.
Patient people can put up with their hunger today. However, impatient people can't because they don't take serious the cost of getting fat tomorrow. They take serious the benefit from eating today and so they eat more than patient people do.
In fact, one research tells that impatient people have high BMI.
Moreover, fat people are more likely to have much debt. In other words, there's a strong correlation between fatness and debt.
Why not? Impatient people spend more today than patient people do. They cannot stand up their today's desire! Impatient people don't (want to) think about paying high interest rate later. In the same way, they don't think about paying high cost of getting fat later, either.
In sum, impatient people are fat and have much debt. There are two factors that make us fat, (1)cost of meal and (2)how patient we are. Having debt and getting fat are the problem of comparing the benefit from spending today to the cost of paying tomorrow, that is, the problem of time preference.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Friday, April 11, 2008
受動喫煙
受動喫煙：たばこの煙とダイオキシン、細胞動き同じ 山梨大学院グループ証明
4月10日15時1分配信 毎日新聞
他人が吸ったたばこの煙を吸う受動喫煙と同様の環境に置くと、体内の細胞がダイオキシンを取り込んだ時と同じ動きをすることが、マウスを使った実験で分かった。
山梨大大学院の北村正敬教授（分子情報伝達学）の研究グループが、世界で初めて証明した。実験では健康被害の有無まで調査しなかったが、北村教授は「高い確率で健康被害に及ぶ」と警告している。
研究グループによると、たばこの煙は少なくとも４８００種類の化学物質を含有。ダイオキシンと同様の物質も多数存在しており、体内の「ダイオキシン受容体」と結合することで活性化し、発がん性などの毒性を発揮するという。 今回は、遺伝子組み換え技術でダイオキシンに近い物質に触れると、特殊な酵素を血液に放出するセンサーマウスを作成。このマウスを毎日、受動喫煙の環境下に数時間置いたところ、ダイオキシン受容体が活性化した。
北村教授は「センサーマウスを使った研究は、オフィスのほこりの影響といった日常生活のリスク評価の一つしても有用」と述べた
4月10日15時1分配信 毎日新聞
他人が吸ったたばこの煙を吸う受動喫煙と同様の環境に置くと、体内の細胞がダイオキシンを取り込んだ時と同じ動きをすることが、マウスを使った実験で分かった。
山梨大大学院の北村正敬教授（分子情報伝達学）の研究グループが、世界で初めて証明した。実験では健康被害の有無まで調査しなかったが、北村教授は「高い確率で健康被害に及ぶ」と警告している。
研究グループによると、たばこの煙は少なくとも４８００種類の化学物質を含有。ダイオキシンと同様の物質も多数存在しており、体内の「ダイオキシン受容体」と結合することで活性化し、発がん性などの毒性を発揮するという。 今回は、遺伝子組み換え技術でダイオキシンに近い物質に触れると、特殊な酵素を血液に放出するセンサーマウスを作成。このマウスを毎日、受動喫煙の環境下に数時間置いたところ、ダイオキシン受容体が活性化した。
北村教授は「センサーマウスを使った研究は、オフィスのほこりの影響といった日常生活のリスク評価の一つしても有用」と述べた
Thursday, April 10, 2008
My Econ 101
I have to teach two days later, and I am now preparing for it:
Taro's Econ 101
Price of Pepsi and Human Behavior
When the price of Pepsi rises, what should we do? It’s an easy question. We usually seek substitutes, say, Coke. The price rise makes us shift to Coke.
Price is one of the factors that changes people’s behavior.
Incentive
Economists say that people react to incentives. Incentives mean a motive for a particular action. Do people really react to incentives?
Case Study
On a teenage oral-sex craze in the United States by Tim Harford.
Oral sex is to stimulate penis or vagina by using mouth, say, fellatio and cunnilingus. Both the adults and the teenagers are related to much more oral sex than in 1990. Why not?
Schools teach the risks of sex, particularly HIV/AIDS and some other sexually transmitted infections (STI). Oral sex can be safer than penetrative sex. It dramatically reduces the risk of HIV and other STI.
(a) The economic analysis
If the price of risky sex went up and teenagers really did think about the results of their actions, they would have less risky sex, oral sex.
People switch to safer sex due to the price rise in risky sex: use of the contraceptive pill is down, but use of condoms is up. Moreover, the percentage of teenage virgins has risen by more than 15 percent since the beginning of the 1990s.
(b) Policy implication
Abortion-notification laws force teenagers to get permission to abort from their parents. Some scholars found that wherever and whenever such laws have been passed, STI rates in the teenage and adult populations start to diverge.
When it becomes more difficult to abort, teenagers seem to reduce unprotected sex.
To sum up, now we can see that people really react to incentive.
Taro's Econ 101
Price of Pepsi and Human Behavior
When the price of Pepsi rises, what should we do? It’s an easy question. We usually seek substitutes, say, Coke. The price rise makes us shift to Coke.
Price is one of the factors that changes people’s behavior.
Incentive
Economists say that people react to incentives. Incentives mean a motive for a particular action. Do people really react to incentives?
Case Study
On a teenage oral-sex craze in the United States by Tim Harford.
Oral sex is to stimulate penis or vagina by using mouth, say, fellatio and cunnilingus. Both the adults and the teenagers are related to much more oral sex than in 1990. Why not?
Schools teach the risks of sex, particularly HIV/AIDS and some other sexually transmitted infections (STI). Oral sex can be safer than penetrative sex. It dramatically reduces the risk of HIV and other STI.
(a) The economic analysis
If the price of risky sex went up and teenagers really did think about the results of their actions, they would have less risky sex, oral sex.
People switch to safer sex due to the price rise in risky sex: use of the contraceptive pill is down, but use of condoms is up. Moreover, the percentage of teenage virgins has risen by more than 15 percent since the beginning of the 1990s.
(b) Policy implication
Abortion-notification laws force teenagers to get permission to abort from their parents. Some scholars found that wherever and whenever such laws have been passed, STI rates in the teenage and adult populations start to diverge.
When it becomes more difficult to abort, teenagers seem to reduce unprotected sex.
To sum up, now we can see that people really react to incentive.
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