I want to believe in the formula that I name the "success expectation". This is made by me. I'm not in success yet, but I'm trying for it now. This formula makes up two inputs: my own effort and luck.
(Success expectation) =F(effort, luck)
=0.8×(effort)+0.2×(luck)
where (effort) > 0, (luck) > 0, or (luck) < 0 and these are real numbers.
In my belief, the expectation of success will be higher if I make more effort. It is shown by the coefficient of effort being positive number, 0.8. Here it is an effort that affects success positively. However, the realization of success needs not only effort but luck itself. Luck would increase or decrease the expectation of success. The luck that affects success positively is called a good luck, while the luck that doesn't is a bad one.We need a good luck for success, of course.
By the way, where do these coefficients come from? Of course, these are not backed firmly by any theoretical reason, but by my belief. If only this formula would be true!
5 comments:
Hey Taro,
Any news on your grad school applications. Just wondering.
Oh, thank you very much, Sir. mvpy. I am glad to see you. I was just trying to get in touch with you to let you know about my grad school applications. It's a very good timing!
Soon I'll report my results of the US grad school applications in this blog, but I would like to let you know them right now:
(1) The University of Hawaii at Manoa(UHM): Rejected
(2) The University of South Carolina(USC), Moore School of Business: Rejected
(3) Binghamton University, State University of New York: Accepted
(4) The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee(UWM): Accepted
I thought I would apply to more grad schools, but I couldn't. However I am not going to apply to some more grad schools for next fall.
Some people told me to apply to the grad schools that are ranked
within 30th in the US. I don't know if I should do because I didn't do well at my grad school(Osaka University). I think that I should make a good effort and do my best at new grad school even if I'm in the grad school ranked lower in the US. I think it doesn't matter. As long as I am offered a good chance to pursue my grad study, I should live up to it, I think.
If I want to be an economist at university or other research institution, is it harder in the above schools to be than in the top 30th ranked grad schools? This point was also asked me by my grad PhD candidate. In fact I don't know about it
Next I'll have to decide which school to go. But I have not done yet. At grad school I want to do a research on the open macroeconomics, especially, international economic integration and international currency union.
In general I am interested in how the formation of currency union influences the macroeconomies of the regional areas. I'll do this research by using the econometric tools and simulations. I hope this research will be needed in today's globalized world. More policymakers and general people want to know that.
And so at school I would like to acquire the basic research skills and the abilities of speaking in public and writing theses in English.
I've not finally decided which school to go yet, but I think it would be better to go to UWM because more teachers have the research areas I'm interested in.
If you have any advice about this, please give me. I would like to keep in mind some of your advice.
Hi Taro,
Congratulations on your admissions. Too bad you didnt get schools in warmer areas - like Hawaii! Dont be worried about not getting a top thirty school. These can be pretty hard to get into anyway, and also, bear in mind that, ultimately, the quality of your work will depend on you. If you do good work, then you can still of course get a job at a university or research institution. My understanding is that, schools below the top 40 or so are happy to hire somebody from any grad school; and, obviously, most schools are indeed ranking below 40. Indeed, many of these schools dont want people from top places, since they fear theyll leave them, be a bit arrogant, or whatever.
I really dont know many specifics about either school, to be honest. However, I just checked up US News and it seems that Binghamton has a better reputation overall than UWM. However, whats important is the number of people in your area at your respective school. I looked at both econ depts, and they both seem pretty good overall; theres really not much of a difference between them. But, as you say, if theres more people doing international econ at Milwaukee, then thats prob best for you. Furthermore, you also must consider funding too - that is important! Location is important too, since in all likelihood, youll be living in the place for 4-6 years. So, you ought to check out what these places are like - though, I must say, Milwaukee looks very nice. By the way, go to "wikipedia" and check them out; thats what I did. Also, if you google "econphd", they have information and rankings on gradschools. As well, you could email grad students at the schools and ask them a few questions. I remember doing that myself, and received very useful information. Perhaps, too, if youre very undecided you could visit - though I understand its a long way for you! In any case, let me know how it goes and, also, if you ever want me to call you and talk, Im delighted to do that.
Mr. mvpy,
Thank you for your detailed and helpful comments and your kindness.
Listening to what you said, I have to think of what's the meaning of the econ ranking in the US for me. To tell the truth, I'm nervous about what to do first.
I think I should prepare the course study(micro/macro/econome) for the first year, practice English and know about the graduate life and some scholarships and assistantships.
If I can't meet UWM or Binghamton in terms of the assistantship and research area, I wonder if I'll have to think of changing to other graduate school, or, "transfering" to other schools. I should research it.
However I think it may be better to complete the graduate study at the school that permitted me because I was offered a good chance.
Anyway, as you told me, I will email grad students at the schools and ask them a few questions.
I will blog my present situation if I have some time. Again thank you for your consideration. I'll ask you some questions later again.
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