Monday, August 10, 2015

Risk, Heart and Head - リスク、感情と勘定

 Which operation is better?
#1 It will fail with prob of 60%, #2 It will succeed with prob of 40%

These operations will bring the same result, but it doesn't seem to.

If you take a cancer test, then the test is positive. The positive rate is 80% and the prob you have the cancer is also 80%, isn't it? Given about 5 people suffer from the cancer per 0.1 million people and the prob is 0.02%.

Speaking from the heart, a nuclear power plant is quite dangerous at the risk of having a high level of radiation. You might recall Hiroshima and Fukushima. However, speaking from the head, what percent is the prob that you suffer from a cancer and that you have a nuclear accident? It must be quite low. It should keep you much far away from there.




No comments: