Thursday, October 23, 2008

Monty Hall Show(New Version)

Decision theory studies how people make a decision under the circumstance of uncertainty. We use an idea of probability and expectation.

One of the famous stories related to this problem is "Monty Hall Problem":

"There are three boxes and there's a ball in one of the three boxes and nothing in each of the left two boxes."

(Question) "If you choose the box 1 and open another box (box 2) and see nothing in the box 2, should you stick with the initial choice(box 1) or swap your choice(box 3)? "

What's your answer? Swap or not?

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