Thursday, July 30, 2015

On Hiroshima 広島ノート

日本は戦時中原爆研究をやっていた。陸軍の「ニ号研究」、海軍の「F研究」。「二号研究」は理化学研究所が中心となり行われ、予算が乏しく、とん挫したようであるが、私は「F研究」の存在を今回の産経報道(2015.7.26)で初めて知った。
私は、当時の陸海軍は、証拠が乏しいものの、マンハッタン計画と広島への原爆投下を知っていたと考えている。(長崎は当初福岡に落とされる予定だったが、天候不順で長崎に変更になったという経緯があり、これを当時の陸軍が予測できたか分からない)
問題は(1)なぜ日本は原爆研究をやったか、(2)なぜ海軍陸軍別々で研究をやったか、(3)なぜ原爆投下を国民に知らせ、避難させなかったか。広島は、 戦後社会でアメリカを超大国にする大きな儀式だった。さらに、結果として、皮肉にも大きな人体実験を米軍と帝国陸軍合同でやった格好となった。「原爆を持 てば国際社会で優位になれる」と陸軍は読み、実際その後の世界は「核抑止力」により秩序が立てられた。NPT(核不拡散条約)の協議も進んでいない。思え ば、広島という原体験こそが、皮肉にも核兵器のない社会を遠いおとぎ話にしてしまったかもしれない。

Then the Imperial Japan had nuclear weapon projects: Ni-Go project conducted by then the Army, F-Go project by then the Navy. These projects are not well informed, first of all, there is few reliable documents about them to consult.
Every year the day of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima is coming on, I am sure that then the Imperial Japan knew the Manhattan Project conducted by then the USA and the date when A bomb would be dropped in Hiroshima, though there's no any more reference that supports it.
My questions are, #1 why did the Imperial Japan try to develop an A bomb?, #2 why didn't then the Army and the Navy cooperate?, #3 why didn't the Navy inform the citizens of Hiroshima of being A bombed and let them run away?
Hiroshima can be said to become a ritual that made USA a political and military hegemony in the post-war world. Moreover, as a result, then the Army let USA conduct, rather cooperated with USA to conduct, a human experimentation in Hiroshima on how an A bomb destroys the human bodies.
Then the Army might read that the Imperial Japan would hold power if it had an A bomb, and it is right; Actually the power balance of the post-war world has been maintained by such a nuclear deterrence. Reflecting how less progress NPT (NonProliferation Treaty) is making, I think it is the very experience of Hiroshima that ironically made real world far away from the world free from nuclear weapons.

自民党・民主党

自民党さんは「カネを増やす」ことだけ考え、民主党さんは「カネをいかに(貧困層に)分けるか」しか考えていない。「カネを増やして分ける」ことが重要ですが、それを言ってる政党さんないです。政治的に難しいんですね、きっと。

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Mr Abe's ruling party, claims income growth to be important, whereas the Democratic Party claims income distribution to be important. The important is, how to increase and divide income, but it must be politically very difficult to do.

Paid In Cash

Earnings don't have to be paid in cash; payment in kind is also fine. One month's worth of rice would be equal to my 3 hours' labor, and the right to have a date with a pretty girl would make me work for 5 hours. Money is a very good device in making the trades smooth, but may not be a good one in making our life happy. Payment in kind can also increase production and employment. To increase income is not only a solution to better life, but to satisfy our everyday life is also important.

男性は自信過剰

女性の給与が男性より低い。これは同じ職業、同じ学歴の男女間にも存在する。男性は女性より2倍自信過剰で、2倍出来高報酬を選ぶからだという。また、女 性の起業家ですら男性のそれよりも23%低い報酬を得ていて、女性はビジネス的な成功より社会貢献を重視、男性より仕事に満足しているという。さらに、男 性の方が長時間労働に従事していることに原因があるともいう。

The Day Of SNS SNSの時代

I cannot help feeling that it is not each individual but major televisions, newspapers, ad agencies, and political and business people that can control the information even though we are in an age of the Social Networking Services (SNS); Something can get labeled as what is convenient for them. The point is what and whom we think we should choose, not what and whom they choose. 

SNSの時代だとは言え、情報は個人でなく、テレビ、新聞、広告代理店、政財界が握っていることを思わずにはいられない。何かが都合よく決めつけられうるのだ。大事なのは、我々が誰を何を選ぶべきかであって、彼らが何を誰を選ぶのではない。

Freedom of Speech on Charlie Hebdo

Nowadays the freedom of speech and press is a little too louder than the freedom of not being insulted.

Milton Friedman of Capitalism and Freedom once said, "My freedom to move my fist must be limited by the proximity of your chin." French cartoonists' fist hit their chin. Their pens cannot help being another way of terrorism. Anyway I do not smile at this type of satire.

Aging Society

Young people are those who want to look adult while old people are those who want to look a little younger. They are usually busy talking around here about how to stay fit and young, which makes me feel that the population is gradually aging.

The Pen Is Mightier Than the Keyboard

プリンストン大・UCLAの研究によれば、パソコンより手書きの方が学習効果が高い。

The Pen Is Mightier Than the Keyboard: Advantages of Longhand Over Laptop Note Taking,Psychological Science June 2014 25: 1159-1168

セックスレス Sexless

セッ クスしてますか。読売新聞夕刊(2015.1.19)によれば、16~49歳の既婚者への調査によると、44.5%が1か月以上セックスしていない。原因 は、労働による疲労(週49時間以上の労働はセックスを減らす)、異性とのコミュニケーションが苦手な人が増加したと言う。自分も含めて、今は皆セックス レスだ。 

When did you have a sex last time? A recent study on married people aged 16-49 living in Japan caught my eye: Of them 44.5% have no sex for more than one month. The reasons are, tiredness from hard work (working more than 49 hours a week lessens sex), and more people dislike communicating with those of the opposite sex. Including me, many people have less sex. So what?

身代金 Ransom

In game theory, there's a question whether to pay ransom to a kidnapper. The official answer is, not to pay. The reason is, if your President or Prime Minister pays ransom to have you released, your neighbors and fellows will forever be targeted by terrorists for the purpose of ransom. But I wonder whether your President paying ransom will risk any other person in your country. For example, displaying kidnappers shot and their hideouts destroyed completely, or becoming unclear whether to pay ransom may not risk any other person's life. At any rate, the Japanese government has to solve the dilemma about their having two hostages released while punishing the Islamic State severely.

「ゲーム理論」では、「誘拐犯に身代金を払うか」という話がある。これには「身代金を払うな」という答えが存在する。いったん身代金を払うと、日本人は身 代金目的で世界中から狙われることになる。しかし、私は身代金を支払って人質を救うことが、将来の日本人の生命を脅かすとは限らないと考えている。例え ば、身代金誘拐の犯人をその場で射殺する、アジトを根絶する、もしくは身代金を支払ったかどうか明らかにしない、などすれば、日本人が狙われるリスクを減 らすことができるかもしれない。いずれにせよ、日本政府は邦人を解放することとイスラム国の実行犯を重刑に処すというジレンマを解かなければならない。

Don't Lose Your Sight

At school belonging to a collective body rather than being an individual, or cooperativeness rather than identity is long taught as of much importance. People generally applaud those belonging to big school and big company. Many scholars and congresspeople are now like full-time workers, and so are ISIL combatants.

The true fighters for poverty, freedom and happiness are quite rare in the world. The truly competent person is not a high-paid one, but one who makes a living with his or her own performance.Your good friends are not those who say just only good things to you, but can criticize you. Those who can tell difficult things are not smart, but can put them into something easy enough for honest children to understand are. Those who can make others enjoy themselves don't have a warm heart, but can enjoy themselves do. Those who are blamed a lot may be trustworthy, rather than those who blame a lot. Don't be part of a swarm. Don't lose sight of yourself.

学校では主体性よりも協調性が重んじられ、個人よりも組織に馴染むことを良しとする。本当の友とは、自分を痛烈に批判する人のこと。誕生日に「おめでとう」なんて言う人じゃない。

いい大学いい会社に勤めていることが褒められる。議員の先生も今や「正社員」感覚。本当の実力者は高給取りじゃなくて芸で食べていける人。小難しいこと ばかり言う人より、小学生にも分かる言葉で言う人がすごい。周りを楽しませる人より、楽しむ人がいい。文句を言う人より言われる人が信頼できる。ある意味 「都合のいい人」が多すぎる。つまらない。

英語 English

日 本では英語は必須科目である。なぜ英語を学ぶのか。英語の教科書には、アメリカ、カナダ、そしてオーストラリア人が登場する。つまり、彼らと会話するた め。つまり、白人社会と交流するためなのだ。自由、民主主義、テロと戦う、それが国際社会。それが常識。日本人は黄色いバナナ。肌は黄、中身は白。黄色の バナナからすると、中東社会が野蛮に見えてくる。テロは中東社会にとっても脅威であるが、それはただバナナになれなかった人の受け皿に過ぎない。

English is a required subject for all the Japanese. Why do they study English? In an English textbook, there are only Caucasian people from the US, Canada and Australia with whom they speak. That is, it's to talk with them. It's to get along with the Caucasian Western society, where freedom, democracy and the fight against terror are all taken for granted. Japanese are, so to speak, 'yellow bananas'; outside is yellow and inside white. For bananas, the Middle East looks so barbarian. The terror is also a great threat to the Middle East, but it just only prepares a room for those who have no clue to become 'bananas'.

On IS

イスラム国への空爆は果たしてイスラム国を撃退させるだろうか。第二次大戦中、当時の日本の帝国陸軍は戦略爆撃(空襲)が国民精神を鍛え上げると言って黙 認していた。シリアのアサド政権もイスラム国を黙認することで、反政府組織や有志連合の弱体化を狙っているかもしれない。空爆は帝国陸軍にとって都合が良 かったように、アサドやイスラム国にとっても都合が良いかもしれない。

Does bombing in Syria wipe out the Islamic States? In WW2, then the Imperial Army of Japan claimed that the US strategic bombing would build up the heart and soul of the Imperial Japanese and overlooked it. Assad of Syria might overlook the Islamic States and then struggle to weaken the anti-Assad and the Coalition of the willing. Bombing, as was convenient to the Imperial Army of Japan, may actually be convenient to the Assad and the Islamic States.

A Bitter School Day

When I was a student, there was a naughty guy at school who liked fighting. I could have beaten that guy while he was shitting at the bathroom, but I couldn't. If I had, I would have been beaten by his fellows. In addition, he could let no one fight with him by having fought with and won another who also liked fighting. The point is, not to fight is to make buddies and to fight much.

However, it may be possible for you not to fight by not fighting; Actually, that guy beat me and I didn't retaliate because I didn't think I could win him. Since then, he didn't beat me any more. No fight and no weapon sounds ideal and may lead peace, but at the same time that means that you should bear any attack at any time, and that you will be always in a danger of being beaten at any time.

中学生のころ、ケンカの強い奴がいた。ケンカの強い奴はババしてる間に(多くは学校でババしないが、そういう奴は堂々ババする。)金属バットで殴れば片付 く。しかし、そんなことすれば仲間が仕返しに来る。また、ケンカの強い奴は他の奴とケンカして勝率を上げることで、誰もケンカしなくなる。ポイントは、 「ケンカをしないためには、仲間を作り、ケンカする必要がある」のだ。

しかし、ケンカを買わないこともケンカをしないことになるかもしれない。実際、僕は そのケンカの強い奴に殴られた。勝てない事が分かっていたので耐えた(耐えられた)。以降そいつは僕の前から姿を消した。耐え難きを耐え、忍び難きを忍ぶ こと。我慢できればケンカしなくていいが、ボコボコにされるリスクは常にある。

Tie

I think that tie is of no use though I always have it on while working. One midnight I missed the last train and I was at a loss. But soon one cab came to me and took me home. Then the driver said, "if you didn't wear a tie, I wouldn't take you up. The (drunken) men in working clothes are so rude." Certainly whom to take up late night may be fatal for taxi drivers. Tie is one of the things that seem of no use in modern society, but as long as many people judge by appearance it should be a necessary item for men to do good business.

日本は豊か Japan is Wealthy

少子化対策しなきゃ日本は益々停滞する、と言うけど、日本は労働人口(青の折れ線)が減っても、稼ぎであるGDP(赤の折れ線)はむしろ増えている。非正 規社員が増え、格差が拡大し、生活が苦しいと言うが、24時間働かずに済むし、安い賃金でもスマフォでテレビや音楽が楽しめ、パスタ、ワインや寿司が 1000円以内で手に入る。80年代のバブル期の人たちよりはるかに豊かで快適な世界にいるのも事実だ。日本経済に問題は存在しないのではないだろうか。

People say that the Japanese economy has been shrinking, but the macro data says the opposite: with the working population decreasing (the blue line) the economy has been bigger and bigger (the red line). Many of the Japanese people worry that the less full-time jobs, the larger the income gap between the rich and the poor. But now each of them can enjoy more leisure, music and movie anytime and anywhere with the smartphone, and can have pasta, wine and sushi at less than $10. It was unthinkable in the golden 1980s. Now Japan is so affluent that they might get frustrated. Any problem in the economy? Probably no.

卵巣がん

日本における卵巣癌の発生頻度は人口10万あたり5.7人、陽性率は70-80%。仮に陽性反応が出たとして卵巣がんである確率は0.0133%~0.0228%。アンジーの決断がベストかどうか分からないが、母方の両親が癌で亡くなっている小生には他人事ではない。

【補足】 P(卵巣癌)=0.000057,P(陽性|卵巣癌)=0.7~0.8,
P(陽性)=0.000057×0.7~0.8+0.999943×0.3~0.2=0.3~0.2,よって、
P(卵巣癌|陽性)=P(卵巣癌)×P(陽性|卵巣癌)÷P(陽性)=0.0133%~0.0228%

教養とは

あらゆることを疑い、あらゆる情報の真偽を自分の目で確認してみること、必ず一次情報に立ち返って自分の頭と足で検証してみること、この健全な批判精神こそが、・・・「教養」というものの本質なのだ。東京大学 石井洋二郎

リーダー

この国に「強力なリーダーが必要だ」という声は依然根強い。そんなリーダー必要か。この国において「天皇」ほど強力なリーダーはいない。この国がちゃんと 安定していることが重要であって、誰が総理かは重要でない。この国が今まで平和なのは実は自由な経済活動でも優秀な官僚でもなく、日米安保と天皇の存在が 大きいように思う。

空堀 Karahori

大阪空堀(からほり)には古い家屋を利用したお店が多い。大型商業店舗の出店を規制する大店法の改正以降、大型ショッピングモールが次々誕生し、全国どこ も同じお店ばかり。大店法の改正は、地域独自の景観を犠牲にする形で、安くていい商品を消費者にもたらした。それゆえ、こういう風景はとても新鮮で心地よ く思ったりする。

There're many shops run in the old houses at Karahori, Osaka. Since the removal of the controls on large retail stores, there have many huge shopping malls appeared all over the country, and we feel like we could see the same stores everywhere. Such deregulation has provided us with cheaper and better-quality goods at the expense of the local landscape. That is why it's fresh and pleasant for me to walk and see such a nostalgic view.

You like Your Hometown?

My hometown is so insular that I don't like it. A couple of days ago I heard someone who once worked in my town saying, "I don't want to go back there,.." I agreed.

The press seem only to focus on the soundness of the local public finance while talking about the local town.

Rather, I feel it better to see how much favorable impression is given by the town. In Osaka the mayor struggles to unite its governmental activities to cut its burden and will take a vote. The problem is not to agree or not, but for such a reform to impress the residents favorably or not.

私の故郷は保守的な土地柄で正直好きじゃないが、私の故郷で昔働いたという人と話していた時も、「あそこ(私の故郷)へは二度と行きたくない」と言ってい た。共感した。地方を語るとき、財政や行政サービスについて論点が多い。ここで提案だが、「好感度」で自治体を評価してみてはどうだろうか。都構想も一度 やってみて、「好感度」が上がるかどうかで評価すべきだと思う。行政コストが高いか低いかはあまり関係ないと思うのだが。

Moss

"A rolling stone gathers no moss"; That means, people who are always moving can't cultivate or deepen their own knowledge and experience. However, such people never lack fresh idea and creativity.

Which is right? Anyway moss is always beautiful.

保守・リベラルは遺伝 Politica Atitude is Heritable

Political attitude is just as genetically heritable as height; The children of tall parents are likely to be tall, but nutrition and sleep etc. will also make them tall. The children of liberal parents are likely to be liberal, but education, companionship etc. will make them liberal. When it comes to politics, some will get so upset. If we recognize that it is just like a 'knee-jerk reaction', we can stay calm on it.

保守かリベラルか。それは遺伝で決まるようだが、身長の高い親の子は身長が高いけど、栄養や睡眠なども身長を高くするように、親がどういう意見を持ち、何 を見て育ち、どういう人付き合いをしてきたかにも大きく影響する。政治になると感情的になるのは「条件反射」みたいなものだと理解できれば、もっと冷静でいられるだろう。

派遣法

派遣法改正で「非正規が増える」というのは間違っている。製造業が低開発国へ移ったので、国内の製造ラインと雇用を縮小した。長期間無期限の「正社員」は 企業に大きな足枷となった。そこで「派遣・非正規」の需要が増えた。派遣法ではなく、時代が非正規を求めた。これからは「有期の非正規社員」として、自営 業者みたいに確定申告すればよい。わずらわしい社内の人間関係から解放され、どれだけ税金払ってるか思い知らされ、我々の政治意識も変わると思う。

On Market Economy

Modern (capitalist) economy is called "market" economy. A visitor from Mars sees the Earth from space and says, "Firms show as solid green areas, while markets show as red lines, so the economy appears as a spider's web of red lines and green areas...our Martian would not describe it as a "network of red lines connecting green spots" but as 'large green areas interconnected by red lines'" pp.168, John McMillan, Reinventing the Bazaar,

Well, market economy is not decentralized itself, but rather dominated by a large number of centrally planning agents, firms and organizations.

Nationality 国民性

「国民性」という言葉がおかしいのは、なんでも説明ができてしまうからだ。「彼が怒りっぽいのは韓国人だから」 「彼が女好きなのはイタリア人だから」 「彼女は借金を返さないのは、ギリシャ人だから」 これは人種差別以外の何物でもない。

Ethnicity is such a weird word that it seems to tell anything; He is always upset because he is a Korean. He likes girls because he is an Italian. She doesn't repay her debt because she is a Greek..Well,.. it's nothing but racism

フェイスブックのお友達 Friends in Facebook

facebookでの「友達」とは「通りすがりの人」のように思います。職場や親しい友を加えたらダメな気がします。

People are reluctant to post a comment so frequently because they add their real friends, coworkers, bosses and ex-girlfriends' friends in an integrated way. The way we talk to our friends is quite different from that we talk to bosses. I make it a rule not to add my neighbors as 'friend' in facebook. Facebook friends are just like "passers-by" whom I saw in my life or in facebook.

戦後観 Post-War View

At the end of World War II, the victors were more interested in bringing Germany and Japan into the community of nations than in seeking retribution for past sins. (Greg Mankiw, NY Times, July 17,2015) Greg is right and this is the common understanding of history. I doubt the countries and leaders (the victors) asking for contrition.

第二次大戦後、戦勝国はドイツ、日本に過去の誤りを謝罪させるよりも、国際社会に溶け込ませることにより関心があった。マンキュー(ハーバード大教授)先生は正しいと思うし、これが共通認識だ。私は過去の誤りを正そうする国家とリーダー(戦勝国)に疑問を持っている。

What is 'In Practice'? 実用とは何か

国 立大学の文系廃止が議論されている。つまり「実用」ばかりが要求されるのだが、「実用」とは一体誰が決めるのか。ベンジャミン・フランクリンが生きた18 世紀では、「電気」は「無用の長物」だった。経済の論理で考えても、人の育成や技術開発には不確実性が伴い、政府機関が投資をし、不確実性を分散すること が望ましい。文系廃止は全く理解不能な愚策である。

Government is now trying to prevent human and social science, which they see as "white elephant", from being taught at national universities. Who on earth decides which science is of use? In the 18th century when Benjamin Franklin was alive, electricity was at least of no use. From the viewpoint of economics, there's always huge uncertainty in educating students and developing new technologies, and thus it would be better for government to fund these activities and to help to break up such uncertainty. Human and social science sounds like they are of no use, but it is also clear that no one knows whether it is useless.